Incumbent Republican Sen. Ashley Moody holds a commanding trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability to win Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election, reflecting the state's deep GOP trifecta, Donald Trump's 2024 double-digit margin, and Moody's strong approval as appointed replacement for Marco Rubio. Recent Emerson College polling from late March showed Moody leading Democrat Alexander Vindman 46%-38% among likely voters, bolstering her position despite narrower margins in Democrat-aligned surveys like PPP (43%-40%) and MDW (43%-42%) from early April. Democrats' narrow flips of two state Senate seats in late March specials signal potential turnout gains, but traders discount these amid historical Republican dominance in Florida Senate races and an upcoming April 24 filing deadline ahead of August primaries. Late-breaking scandals or national midterm dynamics could shift odds.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiFlorida Senatosu Seçimi Kazananı
Florida Senatosu Seçimi Kazananı
$33,875 Hac.
$33,875 Hac.
Cumhuriyetçi
78%
Demokrat
16%
$33,875 Hac.
$33,875 Hac.
Cumhuriyetçi
$17,676 Hac.
78%
Demokrat
$16,199 Hac.
16%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Ashley Moody holds a commanding trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability to win Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election, reflecting the state's deep GOP trifecta, Donald Trump's 2024 double-digit margin, and Moody's strong approval as appointed replacement for Marco Rubio. Recent Emerson College polling from late March showed Moody leading Democrat Alexander Vindman 46%-38% among likely voters, bolstering her position despite narrower margins in Democrat-aligned surveys like PPP (43%-40%) and MDW (43%-42%) from early April. Democrats' narrow flips of two state Senate seats in late March specials signal potential turnout gains, but traders discount these amid historical Republican dominance in Florida Senate races and an upcoming April 24 filing deadline ahead of August primaries. Late-breaking scandals or national midterm dynamics could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Piyasa Açıldı: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Hacim
$33,875Piyasa Açıldı
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Ashley Moody holds a commanding trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability to win Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election, reflecting the state's deep GOP trifecta, Donald Trump's 2024 double-digit margin, and Moody's strong approval as appointed replacement for Marco Rubio. Recent Emerson College polling from late March showed Moody leading Democrat Alexander Vindman 46%-38% among likely voters, bolstering her position despite narrower margins in Democrat-aligned surveys like PPP (43%-40%) and MDW (43%-42%) from early April. Democrats' narrow flips of two state Senate seats in late March specials signal potential turnout gains, but traders discount these amid historical Republican dominance in Florida Senate races and an upcoming April 24 filing deadline ahead of August primaries. Late-breaking scandals or national midterm dynamics could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Hacim
$33,875Piyasa Açıldı
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Ashley Moody holds a commanding trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability to win Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election, reflecting the state's deep GOP trifecta, Donald Trump's 2024 double-digit margin, and Moody's strong approval as appointed replacement for Marco Rubio. Recent Emerson College polling from late March showed Moody leading Democrat Alexander Vindman 46%-38% among likely voters, bolstering her position despite narrower margins in Democrat-aligned surveys like PPP (43%-40%) and MDW (43%-42%) from early April. Democrats' narrow flips of two state Senate seats in late March specials signal potential turnout gains, but traders discount these amid historical Republican dominance in Florida Senate races and an upcoming April 24 filing deadline ahead of August primaries. Late-breaking scandals or national midterm dynamics could shift odds.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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