Trader consensus strongly favors 4-6 Democratic House incumbents losing their primaries at 73.9%, reflecting historical midterm patterns of modest intra-party turnover—typically 2-5% of incumbents defeated—amplified by post-2024 recriminations and progressive challenges targeting moderates. No Democratic incumbents have lost in early primaries through mid-April, including safe advances by Reps. Valerie Foushee (NC-4), Bennie Thompson (MS-2), and Texas delegations amid March contests in Texas, North Carolina, Illinois, and Mississippi. However, odds price in risks from contested races ahead, such as Pennsylvania's April 22 primary, Ohio's April 29 vote, and June heavyweights in California (e.g., Reps. Ami Bera, Ro Khanna), New York, and New Jersey, where Justice Democrats-style insurgencies echo 2024 Squad ousters. With 21 Democratic retirements reducing the field, upcoming primaries and whip counts will clarify paths to victory.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi7-9 45%
<3 43%
13-15 3.6%
10-12 3.5%
YENİ
YENİ
<3
43%
4-6
74%
7-9
45%
10-12
3%
13-15
4%
>15
3%
7-9 45%
<3 43%
13-15 3.6%
10-12 3.5%
YENİ
YENİ
<3
$0 Hac.
43%
4-6
$560 Hac.
74%
7-9
$0 Hac.
45%
10-12
$323 Hac.
3%
13-15
$229 Hac.
4%
>15
$194 Hac.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus strongly favors 4-6 Democratic House incumbents losing their primaries at 73.9%, reflecting historical midterm patterns of modest intra-party turnover—typically 2-5% of incumbents defeated—amplified by post-2024 recriminations and progressive challenges targeting moderates. No Democratic incumbents have lost in early primaries through mid-April, including safe advances by Reps. Valerie Foushee (NC-4), Bennie Thompson (MS-2), and Texas delegations amid March contests in Texas, North Carolina, Illinois, and Mississippi. However, odds price in risks from contested races ahead, such as Pennsylvania's April 22 primary, Ohio's April 29 vote, and June heavyweights in California (e.g., Reps. Ami Bera, Ro Khanna), New York, and New Jersey, where Justice Democrats-style insurgencies echo 2024 Squad ousters. With 21 Democratic retirements reducing the field, upcoming primaries and whip counts will clarify paths to victory.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Hacim
$1,306Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus strongly favors 4-6 Democratic House incumbents losing their primaries at 73.9%, reflecting historical midterm patterns of modest intra-party turnover—typically 2-5% of incumbents defeated—amplified by post-2024 recriminations and progressive challenges targeting moderates. No Democratic incumbents have lost in early primaries through mid-April, including safe advances by Reps. Valerie Foushee (NC-4), Bennie Thompson (MS-2), and Texas delegations amid March contests in Texas, North Carolina, Illinois, and Mississippi. However, odds price in risks from contested races ahead, such as Pennsylvania's April 22 primary, Ohio's April 29 vote, and June heavyweights in California (e.g., Reps. Ami Bera, Ro Khanna), New York, and New Jersey, where Justice Democrats-style insurgencies echo 2024 Squad ousters. With 21 Democratic retirements reducing the field, upcoming primaries and whip counts will clarify paths to victory.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Hacim
$1,306Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus strongly favors 4-6 Democratic House incumbents losing their primaries at 73.9%, reflecting historical midterm patterns of modest intra-party turnover—typically 2-5% of incumbents defeated—amplified by post-2024 recriminations and progressive challenges targeting moderates. No Democratic incumbents have lost in early primaries through mid-April, including safe advances by Reps. Valerie Foushee (NC-4), Bennie Thompson (MS-2), and Texas delegations amid March contests in Texas, North Carolina, Illinois, and Mississippi. However, odds price in risks from contested races ahead, such as Pennsylvania's April 22 primary, Ohio's April 29 vote, and June heavyweights in California (e.g., Reps. Ami Bera, Ro Khanna), New York, and New Jersey, where Justice Democrats-style insurgencies echo 2024 Squad ousters. With 21 Democratic retirements reducing the field, upcoming primaries and whip counts will clarify paths to victory.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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