Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on 7-9 countries (31.5%, 23.4%, and 14.4% implied probabilities respectively) for US military actions in 2026, driven by the Trump administration's intensified counterterrorism via CENTCOM and AFRICOM alongside the ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes campaign against Iran since February 28. Recent developments include U.S. forces continuing precision strikes into Iran as of April 5 amid a fragile ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz naval blockade following failed Islamabad talks on April 12, plus AFRICOM airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia and al-Shabaab in Somalia on April 6-7. Earlier 2026 actions encompass a January raid in Venezuela, expanded ISIS strikes in Syria from January, and sustained Somalia operations, placing the year-to-date tally around 4-6 distinct nations. The tight race persists due to eight months remaining, with potential for escalation via Iranian proxies in Iraq or Yemen, or de-escalation through diplomacy, keeping higher counts viable amid uncertain proxy conflicts and diplomatic pressures.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiABD 2026 'da kaç farklı ülkeye askeri harekat düzenleyecek?
ABD 2026 'da kaç farklı ülkeye askeri harekat düzenleyecek?
7 31.5%
8 23.4%
9 14.4%
6 9.9%
$886,930 Hac.
$886,930 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
6
10%
7
32%
8
23%
9
14%
10
9%
11
3%
12
3%
13
3%
14
1%
15+
2%
7 31.5%
8 23.4%
9 14.4%
6 9.9%
$886,930 Hac.
$886,930 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
6
$420,356 Hac.
10%
7
$6,328 Hac.
32%
8
$36,988 Hac.
23%
9
$11,318 Hac.
14%
10
$11,824 Hac.
9%
11
$8,707 Hac.
3%
12
$28,360 Hac.
3%
13
$41,472 Hac.
3%
14
$42,016 Hac.
1%
15+
$119,718 Hac.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on 7-9 countries (31.5%, 23.4%, and 14.4% implied probabilities respectively) for US military actions in 2026, driven by the Trump administration's intensified counterterrorism via CENTCOM and AFRICOM alongside the ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes campaign against Iran since February 28. Recent developments include U.S. forces continuing precision strikes into Iran as of April 5 amid a fragile ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz naval blockade following failed Islamabad talks on April 12, plus AFRICOM airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia and al-Shabaab in Somalia on April 6-7. Earlier 2026 actions encompass a January raid in Venezuela, expanded ISIS strikes in Syria from January, and sustained Somalia operations, placing the year-to-date tally around 4-6 distinct nations. The tight race persists due to eight months remaining, with potential for escalation via Iranian proxies in Iraq or Yemen, or de-escalation through diplomacy, keeping higher counts viable amid uncertain proxy conflicts and diplomatic pressures.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Hacim
$886,930Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on 7-9 countries (31.5%, 23.4%, and 14.4% implied probabilities respectively) for US military actions in 2026, driven by the Trump administration's intensified counterterrorism via CENTCOM and AFRICOM alongside the ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes campaign against Iran since February 28. Recent developments include U.S. forces continuing precision strikes into Iran as of April 5 amid a fragile ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz naval blockade following failed Islamabad talks on April 12, plus AFRICOM airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia and al-Shabaab in Somalia on April 6-7. Earlier 2026 actions encompass a January raid in Venezuela, expanded ISIS strikes in Syria from January, and sustained Somalia operations, placing the year-to-date tally around 4-6 distinct nations. The tight race persists due to eight months remaining, with potential for escalation via Iranian proxies in Iraq or Yemen, or de-escalation through diplomacy, keeping higher counts viable amid uncertain proxy conflicts and diplomatic pressures.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$886,930Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on 7-9 countries (31.5%, 23.4%, and 14.4% implied probabilities respectively) for US military actions in 2026, driven by the Trump administration's intensified counterterrorism via CENTCOM and AFRICOM alongside the ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes campaign against Iran since February 28. Recent developments include U.S. forces continuing precision strikes into Iran as of April 5 amid a fragile ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz naval blockade following failed Islamabad talks on April 12, plus AFRICOM airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia and al-Shabaab in Somalia on April 6-7. Earlier 2026 actions encompass a January raid in Venezuela, expanded ISIS strikes in Syria from January, and sustained Somalia operations, placing the year-to-date tally around 4-6 distinct nations. The tight race persists due to eight months remaining, with potential for escalation via Iranian proxies in Iraq or Yemen, or de-escalation through diplomacy, keeping higher counts viable amid uncertain proxy conflicts and diplomatic pressures.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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