With vote counting for the Kerala Legislative Assembly election set for May 4 following high-turnout polling on April 9, trader consensus slightly favors the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) at 53% implied probability over the INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 45.5%, reflecting a razor-thin bipolar contest defined by anti-incumbency fatigue after two LDF terms under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Economic pressures like unemployment and state debt bolster UDF momentum from 2025 local body gains, while LDF's welfare schemes and southern district strength provide incumbency ballast. Pre-poll surveys vary—Manorama-C Voter projecting UDF 69-81 seats, others showing LDF 61-71—with NDA's 12-17% vote share threatening splits in 20 battleground constituencies like Thrissur and Nemom. A hung assembly looms without 71-seat majority; NDA surges or late swings could decide outright victory.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiKerala Yasama Meclisi Seçim Kazananı
Kerala Yasama Meclisi Seçim Kazananı
CPI(M) 53%
INC 45%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$280,262 Hac.
$280,262 Hac.
9 Nis 2026
CPI(M)
53%
INC
45%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
RSP
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
BJP
<1%
NCP
<1%
IUML
<1%
CPI(M) 53%
INC 45%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$280,262 Hac.
$280,262 Hac.
9 Nis 2026
CPI(M)
$35,262 Hac.
53%
INC
$34,767 Hac.
45%
BSP
$12,297 Hac.
<1%
CPI
$28,084 Hac.
<1%
JD(S)
$24,403 Hac.
<1%
RSP
$13,090 Hac.
<1%
KEC(M)
$13,613 Hac.
<1%
BJP
$57,830 Hac.
<1%
NCP
$45,976 Hac.
<1%
IUML
$14,939 Hac.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).With vote counting for the Kerala Legislative Assembly election set for May 4 following high-turnout polling on April 9, trader consensus slightly favors the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) at 53% implied probability over the INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 45.5%, reflecting a razor-thin bipolar contest defined by anti-incumbency fatigue after two LDF terms under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Economic pressures like unemployment and state debt bolster UDF momentum from 2025 local body gains, while LDF's welfare schemes and southern district strength provide incumbency ballast. Pre-poll surveys vary—Manorama-C Voter projecting UDF 69-81 seats, others showing LDF 61-71—with NDA's 12-17% vote share threatening splits in 20 battleground constituencies like Thrissur and Nemom. A hung assembly looms without 71-seat majority; NDA surges or late swings could decide outright victory.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Hacim
$280,262Bitiş Tarihi
9 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).With vote counting for the Kerala Legislative Assembly election set for May 4 following high-turnout polling on April 9, trader consensus slightly favors the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) at 53% implied probability over the INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 45.5%, reflecting a razor-thin bipolar contest defined by anti-incumbency fatigue after two LDF terms under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Economic pressures like unemployment and state debt bolster UDF momentum from 2025 local body gains, while LDF's welfare schemes and southern district strength provide incumbency ballast. Pre-poll surveys vary—Manorama-C Voter projecting UDF 69-81 seats, others showing LDF 61-71—with NDA's 12-17% vote share threatening splits in 20 battleground constituencies like Thrissur and Nemom. A hung assembly looms without 71-seat majority; NDA surges or late swings could decide outright victory.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Hacim
$280,262Bitiş Tarihi
9 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With vote counting for the Kerala Legislative Assembly election set for May 4 following high-turnout polling on April 9, trader consensus slightly favors the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) at 53% implied probability over the INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 45.5%, reflecting a razor-thin bipolar contest defined by anti-incumbency fatigue after two LDF terms under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Economic pressures like unemployment and state debt bolster UDF momentum from 2025 local body gains, while LDF's welfare schemes and southern district strength provide incumbency ballast. Pre-poll surveys vary—Manorama-C Voter projecting UDF 69-81 seats, others showing LDF 61-71—with NDA's 12-17% vote share threatening splits in 20 battleground constituencies like Thrissur and Nemom. A hung assembly looms without 71-seat majority; NDA surges or late swings could decide outright victory.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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