AfD commands an 83% implied probability as the frontrunner in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election market, driven by its persistent double-digit lead in recent opinion polls under the state's mixed-member proportional representation system. The latest INSA survey for Nordkurier on March 17 showed AfD at 34%—ahead of incumbent SPD's 26%—following a February Forsa poll peak of 37% and January Infratest dimap at 35%, reflecting voter shifts in eastern Germany amid economic pressures and migration concerns. SPD gains have narrowed the gap slightly but not erased it, positioning it second at 11.5%, while CDU trails at 12-13% in polls, explaining its 2.6% odds. With the September 20 vote five months away, trader consensus anticipates AfD securing the plurality absent major scandals or campaign surges.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiMecklenburg - Vorpommern Parlamento Seçimi Kazananı
Mecklenburg - Vorpommern Parlamento Seçimi Kazananı
AfD 83%
SPD 12%
CDU 2.7%
FDP <1%
$199,592 Hac.
$199,592 Hac.
20 Eyl 2026
AfD
83%
SPD
12%
CDU
3%
FDP
1%
Linke
<1%
BSW
<1%
Grüne
<1%
FW
<1%
AfD 83%
SPD 12%
CDU 2.7%
FDP <1%
$199,592 Hac.
$199,592 Hac.
20 Eyl 2026
AfD
$5,711 Hac.
83%
SPD
$34,350 Hac.
12%
CDU
$26,439 Hac.
3%
FDP
$45,919 Hac.
1%
Linke
$7,218 Hac.
<1%
BSW
$10,350 Hac.
<1%
Grüne
$50,890 Hac.
<1%
FW
$18,715 Hac.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD commands an 83% implied probability as the frontrunner in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election market, driven by its persistent double-digit lead in recent opinion polls under the state's mixed-member proportional representation system. The latest INSA survey for Nordkurier on March 17 showed AfD at 34%—ahead of incumbent SPD's 26%—following a February Forsa poll peak of 37% and January Infratest dimap at 35%, reflecting voter shifts in eastern Germany amid economic pressures and migration concerns. SPD gains have narrowed the gap slightly but not erased it, positioning it second at 11.5%, while CDU trails at 12-13% in polls, explaining its 2.6% odds. With the September 20 vote five months away, trader consensus anticipates AfD securing the plurality absent major scandals or campaign surges.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Hacim
$199,592Bitiş Tarihi
20 Eyl 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD commands an 83% implied probability as the frontrunner in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election market, driven by its persistent double-digit lead in recent opinion polls under the state's mixed-member proportional representation system. The latest INSA survey for Nordkurier on March 17 showed AfD at 34%—ahead of incumbent SPD's 26%—following a February Forsa poll peak of 37% and January Infratest dimap at 35%, reflecting voter shifts in eastern Germany amid economic pressures and migration concerns. SPD gains have narrowed the gap slightly but not erased it, positioning it second at 11.5%, while CDU trails at 12-13% in polls, explaining its 2.6% odds. With the September 20 vote five months away, trader consensus anticipates AfD securing the plurality absent major scandals or campaign surges.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Hacim
$199,592Bitiş Tarihi
20 Eyl 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...AfD commands an 83% implied probability as the frontrunner in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election market, driven by its persistent double-digit lead in recent opinion polls under the state's mixed-member proportional representation system. The latest INSA survey for Nordkurier on March 17 showed AfD at 34%—ahead of incumbent SPD's 26%—following a February Forsa poll peak of 37% and January Infratest dimap at 35%, reflecting voter shifts in eastern Germany amid economic pressures and migration concerns. SPD gains have narrowed the gap slightly but not erased it, positioning it second at 11.5%, while CDU trails at 12-13% in polls, explaining its 2.6% odds. With the September 20 vote five months away, trader consensus anticipates AfD securing the plurality absent major scandals or campaign surges.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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