Trader consensus implies a 91% chance of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, reflecting stalled diplomacy and intensifying frontline fighting despite a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce last weekend that ended amid mutual violation accusations. The Kremlin stated April 6 that peace talks are paused as U.S. priorities shifted to the Iran conflict, with no resumption signaled even after a U.S.-brokered Iran ceasefire. Recent Russian missile barrages on Ukrainian cities and European drone support for Kyiv underscore escalation, not de-escalation, leaving scant time for negotiations amid entrenched positions on territorial control and security guarantees. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or summits could shift odds, but current military momentum favors prolonged stalemate.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi30 Haziran 2026 'ya kadar Rusya x Ukrayna ateşkesi?
30 Haziran 2026 'ya kadar Rusya x Ukrayna ateşkesi?
Evet
$6,168,317 Hac.
$6,168,317 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
Evet
$6,168,317 Hac.
$6,168,317 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus implies a 91% chance of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, reflecting stalled diplomacy and intensifying frontline fighting despite a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce last weekend that ended amid mutual violation accusations. The Kremlin stated April 6 that peace talks are paused as U.S. priorities shifted to the Iran conflict, with no resumption signaled even after a U.S.-brokered Iran ceasefire. Recent Russian missile barrages on Ukrainian cities and European drone support for Kyiv underscore escalation, not de-escalation, leaving scant time for negotiations amid entrenched positions on territorial control and security guarantees. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or summits could shift odds, but current military momentum favors prolonged stalemate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
Hacim
$6,168,317Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus implies a 91% chance of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, reflecting stalled diplomacy and intensifying frontline fighting despite a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce last weekend that ended amid mutual violation accusations. The Kremlin stated April 6 that peace talks are paused as U.S. priorities shifted to the Iran conflict, with no resumption signaled even after a U.S.-brokered Iran ceasefire. Recent Russian missile barrages on Ukrainian cities and European drone support for Kyiv underscore escalation, not de-escalation, leaving scant time for negotiations amid entrenched positions on territorial control and security guarantees. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or summits could shift odds, but current military momentum favors prolonged stalemate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Hacim
$6,168,326Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 91% chance of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, reflecting stalled diplomacy and intensifying frontline fighting despite a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce last weekend that ended amid mutual violation accusations. The Kremlin stated April 6 that peace talks are paused as U.S. priorities shifted to the Iran conflict, with no resumption signaled even after a U.S.-brokered Iran ceasefire. Recent Russian missile barrages on Ukrainian cities and European drone support for Kyiv underscore escalation, not de-escalation, leaving scant time for negotiations amid entrenched positions on territorial control and security guarantees. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or summits could shift odds, but current military momentum favors prolonged stalemate.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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