Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 96.8% implied probability for tech layoffs rising in Q1 2026, driven by finalized tracker data from Layoffs.fyi and TrueUp.io revealing over 78,000 to 95,000 job cuts across 240+ companies—far exceeding Q4 2025 and marking the highest Q1 on record, up 40% year-over-year per Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Major catalysts include AI-driven automation eliminating nearly 50% of roles at firms like Meta, Amazon, Oracle, and Dell, alongside broader workforce restructuring amid economic pressures and AI infrastructure investments. With Q1 ended March 31 and reports solidified by early April, confidence stems from skin-in-the-game bets aligning on verified totals; only an improbable downward revision from trackers or resolution disputes could shift outcomes.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiQ1, 2026 'da Teknik İşten Çıkarmalar Yukarı mı Aşağı mı?
Q1, 2026 'da Teknik İşten Çıkarmalar Yukarı mı Aşağı mı?
Up
YENİ
YENİ
5 May 2026
Up
YENİ
YENİ
5 May 2026
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar) than in Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2025 (115,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 2025 than in Q1 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
The quarterly totals will be calculated as the sum of the relevant monthly data points within each respective quarter.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for March 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If not all relevant data points are released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, data published up until this point will be used to determine the Q1 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 96.8% implied probability for tech layoffs rising in Q1 2026, driven by finalized tracker data from Layoffs.fyi and TrueUp.io revealing over 78,000 to 95,000 job cuts across 240+ companies—far exceeding Q4 2025 and marking the highest Q1 on record, up 40% year-over-year per Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Major catalysts include AI-driven automation eliminating nearly 50% of roles at firms like Meta, Amazon, Oracle, and Dell, alongside broader workforce restructuring amid economic pressures and AI infrastructure investments. With Q1 ended March 31 and reports solidified by early April, confidence stems from skin-in-the-game bets aligning on verified totals; only an improbable downward revision from trackers or resolution disputes could shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar) than in Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2025 (115,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 2025 than in Q1 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
The quarterly totals will be calculated as the sum of the relevant monthly data points within each respective quarter.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for March 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If not all relevant data points are released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, data published up until this point will be used to determine the Q1 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 2025 than in Q1 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
The quarterly totals will be calculated as the sum of the relevant monthly data points within each respective quarter.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for March 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If not all relevant data points are released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, data published up until this point will be used to determine the Q1 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 20, 2026, 5:05 PM ET
Hacim
$8,723Bitiş Tarihi
5 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 20, 2026, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar) than in Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2025 (115,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 2025 than in Q1 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
The quarterly totals will be calculated as the sum of the relevant monthly data points within each respective quarter.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for March 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If not all relevant data points are released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, data published up until this point will be used to determine the Q1 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 96.8% implied probability for tech layoffs rising in Q1 2026, driven by finalized tracker data from Layoffs.fyi and TrueUp.io revealing over 78,000 to 95,000 job cuts across 240+ companies—far exceeding Q4 2025 and marking the highest Q1 on record, up 40% year-over-year per Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Major catalysts include AI-driven automation eliminating nearly 50% of roles at firms like Meta, Amazon, Oracle, and Dell, alongside broader workforce restructuring amid economic pressures and AI infrastructure investments. With Q1 ended March 31 and reports solidified by early April, confidence stems from skin-in-the-game bets aligning on verified totals; only an improbable downward revision from trackers or resolution disputes could shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar) than in Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2025 (115,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 2025 than in Q1 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
The quarterly totals will be calculated as the sum of the relevant monthly data points within each respective quarter.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for March 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If not all relevant data points are released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, data published up until this point will be used to determine the Q1 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 2025 than in Q1 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
The quarterly totals will be calculated as the sum of the relevant monthly data points within each respective quarter.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for March 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If not all relevant data points are released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, data published up until this point will be used to determine the Q1 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Hacim
$8,723Bitiş Tarihi
5 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 20, 2026, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 96.8% implied probability for tech layoffs rising in Q1 2026, driven by finalized tracker data from Layoffs.fyi and TrueUp.io revealing over 78,000 to 95,000 job cuts across 240+ companies—far exceeding Q4 2025 and marking the highest Q1 on record, up 40% year-over-year per Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Major catalysts include AI-driven automation eliminating nearly 50% of roles at firms like Meta, Amazon, Oracle, and Dell, alongside broader workforce restructuring amid economic pressures and AI infrastructure investments. With Q1 ended March 31 and reports solidified by early April, confidence stems from skin-in-the-game bets aligning on verified totals; only an improbable downward revision from trackers or resolution disputes could shift outcomes.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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