Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model dominates the LMArena text leaderboard at 1502 Elo—unlisted in this multi-outcome market—setting a high bar for listed challengers like OpenAI (27% implied probability) and xAI (13%) to claim #1 for any duration by June 30. Traders' modest odds reflect expectations of superior releases from these labs, backed by high volumes ($353K on OpenAI, $542K on xAI), amid rapid iteration cycles. Meta's recent Muse Spark multimodal model climbed to #3 (1495 Elo), while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview lags at #4; Chinese contenders like DeepSeek (9%) eye upsets. Catalysts include rumored OpenAI GPT updates, xAI's Grok advancements, and Anthropic's Opus 4.7 or Mythos previews, with leaderboard volatility hinging on benchmark gains.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$1,429,748 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
OpenAI
28%
xAI
14%
Alibaba
8%
Meta
7%
DeepSeek
7%
Z.ai
5%
Nvidia
5%
Baidu
4%
Mistral
4%
Meituan
3%
$1,429,748 Hac.
OpenAI
$353,960 Hac.
28%
xAI
$542,685 Hac.
14%
Alibaba
$4,945 Hac.
8%
Meta
$14,872 Hac.
7%
DeepSeek
$227,449 Hac.
7%
Z.ai
$4,613 Hac.
5%
Nvidia
$5,923 Hac.
5%
Baidu
$1,934 Hac.
4%
Mistral
$12,668 Hac.
4%
Meituan
$2,730 Hac.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model dominates the LMArena text leaderboard at 1502 Elo—unlisted in this multi-outcome market—setting a high bar for listed challengers like OpenAI (27% implied probability) and xAI (13%) to claim #1 for any duration by June 30. Traders' modest odds reflect expectations of superior releases from these labs, backed by high volumes ($353K on OpenAI, $542K on xAI), amid rapid iteration cycles. Meta's recent Muse Spark multimodal model climbed to #3 (1495 Elo), while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview lags at #4; Chinese contenders like DeepSeek (9%) eye upsets. Catalysts include rumored OpenAI GPT updates, xAI's Grok advancements, and Anthropic's Opus 4.7 or Mythos previews, with leaderboard volatility hinging on benchmark gains.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Hacim
$1,429,748Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model dominates the LMArena text leaderboard at 1502 Elo—unlisted in this multi-outcome market—setting a high bar for listed challengers like OpenAI (27% implied probability) and xAI (13%) to claim #1 for any duration by June 30. Traders' modest odds reflect expectations of superior releases from these labs, backed by high volumes ($353K on OpenAI, $542K on xAI), amid rapid iteration cycles. Meta's recent Muse Spark multimodal model climbed to #3 (1495 Elo), while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview lags at #4; Chinese contenders like DeepSeek (9%) eye upsets. Catalysts include rumored OpenAI GPT updates, xAI's Grok advancements, and Anthropic's Opus 4.7 or Mythos previews, with leaderboard volatility hinging on benchmark gains.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Hacim
$1,429,748Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model dominates the LMArena text leaderboard at 1502 Elo—unlisted in this multi-outcome market—setting a high bar for listed challengers like OpenAI (27% implied probability) and xAI (13%) to claim #1 for any duration by June 30. Traders' modest odds reflect expectations of superior releases from these labs, backed by high volumes ($353K on OpenAI, $542K on xAI), amid rapid iteration cycles. Meta's recent Muse Spark multimodal model climbed to #3 (1495 Elo), while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview lags at #4; Chinese contenders like DeepSeek (9%) eye upsets. Catalysts include rumored OpenAI GPT updates, xAI's Grok advancements, and Anthropic's Opus 4.7 or Mythos previews, with leaderboard volatility hinging on benchmark gains.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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