Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 80.5% implied probability to hold the #2 spot on the LMArena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 models dominating the current top two positions with Elo scores of 1502 (#1 Thinking variant) and 1496 (#2 standard). This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Opus 4.6 release, which excels in reasoning, coding, and multi-turn tasks under Style Control—normalizing for verbose outputs that suit Claude's structured responses. Meta's Muse-Spark trails closely at #3 (1495 Elo, 9.3% odds), boosted by open-weight appeal, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview climbed to #4 (1493) last week but faces a widening gap. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High lags at #7 (1481, 4.7% odds). With two weeks left, no confirmed rival launches loom large enough to dislodge Anthropic, though surprise GPT-5.5 or Llama 4 drops could shift dynamics.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiNisan ayının sonunda hangi şirket 2 numaralı yapay zeka modeline sahip? (Stil Kontrolü Açık)
Nisan ayının sonunda hangi şirket 2 numaralı yapay zeka modeline sahip? (Stil Kontrolü Açık)
Anthropic 81%
Meta 7.2%
OpenAI 4.7%
Google 4.0%
$37,456 Hac.
$37,456 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
Anthropic
81%
Meta
7%
OpenAI
5%
4%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Alibaba
<1%
xAI
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 81%
Meta 7.2%
OpenAI 4.7%
Google 4.0%
$37,456 Hac.
$37,456 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
Anthropic
$15,282 Hac.
81%
Meta
$856 Hac.
7%
OpenAI
$3,094 Hac.
5%
$3,221 Hac.
4%
DeepSeek
$1,496 Hac.
1%
ByteDance
$2,584 Hac.
1%
Alibaba
$1,387 Hac.
<1%
xAI
$1,331 Hac.
<1%
Meituan
$1,533 Hac.
<1%
Amazon
$1,247 Hac.
<1%
Baidu
$1,407 Hac.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,250 Hac.
<1%
Z.ai
$1,455 Hac.
<1%
Mistral
$1,313 Hac.
<1%
Microsoft
$0 Hac.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 80.5% implied probability to hold the #2 spot on the LMArena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 models dominating the current top two positions with Elo scores of 1502 (#1 Thinking variant) and 1496 (#2 standard). This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Opus 4.6 release, which excels in reasoning, coding, and multi-turn tasks under Style Control—normalizing for verbose outputs that suit Claude's structured responses. Meta's Muse-Spark trails closely at #3 (1495 Elo, 9.3% odds), boosted by open-weight appeal, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview climbed to #4 (1493) last week but faces a widening gap. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High lags at #7 (1481, 4.7% odds). With two weeks left, no confirmed rival launches loom large enough to dislodge Anthropic, though surprise GPT-5.5 or Llama 4 drops could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
Hacim
$37,456Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 80.5% implied probability to hold the #2 spot on the LMArena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 models dominating the current top two positions with Elo scores of 1502 (#1 Thinking variant) and 1496 (#2 standard). This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Opus 4.6 release, which excels in reasoning, coding, and multi-turn tasks under Style Control—normalizing for verbose outputs that suit Claude's structured responses. Meta's Muse-Spark trails closely at #3 (1495 Elo, 9.3% odds), boosted by open-weight appeal, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview climbed to #4 (1493) last week but faces a widening gap. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High lags at #7 (1481, 4.7% odds). With two weeks left, no confirmed rival launches loom large enough to dislodge Anthropic, though surprise GPT-5.5 or Llama 4 drops could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Hacim
$37,456Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 80.5% implied probability to hold the #2 spot on the LMArena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 models dominating the current top two positions with Elo scores of 1502 (#1 Thinking variant) and 1496 (#2 standard). This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Opus 4.6 release, which excels in reasoning, coding, and multi-turn tasks under Style Control—normalizing for verbose outputs that suit Claude's structured responses. Meta's Muse-Spark trails closely at #3 (1495 Elo, 9.3% odds), boosted by open-weight appeal, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview climbed to #4 (1493) last week but faces a widening gap. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High lags at #7 (1481, 4.7% odds). With two weeks left, no confirmed rival launches loom large enough to dislodge Anthropic, though surprise GPT-5.5 or Llama 4 drops could shift dynamics.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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