Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 73.5% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the company's recent shutdown of its Sora AI video app—its closest foray into social features—in late March 2026, just six months after the September 2025 Sora 2 launch. The TikTok-like platform, plagued by low user adoption, deepfake moderation challenges, and safety concerns, generated minimal revenue despite hype, signaling OpenAI's pivot away from consumer social experiments toward core large language model advancements like upcoming "Spud" releases and a unified superapp integrating ChatGPT and developer tools. Early 2025 rumors of an X-rival social feed and January 2026 biometric network speculation have yielded no official announcements or prototypes by mid-April, with resources redirected to AGI-scale infrastructure amid $25 billion revenue run-rate projections and IPO preparations, leaving scant room for non-essential platform launches before year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiYENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
YENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 73.5% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the company's recent shutdown of its Sora AI video app—its closest foray into social features—in late March 2026, just six months after the September 2025 Sora 2 launch. The TikTok-like platform, plagued by low user adoption, deepfake moderation challenges, and safety concerns, generated minimal revenue despite hype, signaling OpenAI's pivot away from consumer social experiments toward core large language model advancements like upcoming "Spud" releases and a unified superapp integrating ChatGPT and developer tools. Early 2025 rumors of an X-rival social feed and January 2026 biometric network speculation have yielded no official announcements or prototypes by mid-April, with resources redirected to AGI-scale infrastructure amid $25 billion revenue run-rate projections and IPO preparations, leaving scant room for non-essential platform launches before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Hacim
$5,228Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 73.5% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the company's recent shutdown of its Sora AI video app—its closest foray into social features—in late March 2026, just six months after the September 2025 Sora 2 launch. The TikTok-like platform, plagued by low user adoption, deepfake moderation challenges, and safety concerns, generated minimal revenue despite hype, signaling OpenAI's pivot away from consumer social experiments toward core large language model advancements like upcoming "Spud" releases and a unified superapp integrating ChatGPT and developer tools. Early 2025 rumors of an X-rival social feed and January 2026 biometric network speculation have yielded no official announcements or prototypes by mid-April, with resources redirected to AGI-scale infrastructure amid $25 billion revenue run-rate projections and IPO preparations, leaving scant room for non-essential platform launches before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Hacim
$5,228Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 73.5% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the company's recent shutdown of its Sora AI video app—its closest foray into social features—in late March 2026, just six months after the September 2025 Sora 2 launch. The TikTok-like platform, plagued by low user adoption, deepfake moderation challenges, and safety concerns, generated minimal revenue despite hype, signaling OpenAI's pivot away from consumer social experiments toward core large language model advancements like upcoming "Spud" releases and a unified superapp integrating ChatGPT and developer tools. Early 2025 rumors of an X-rival social feed and January 2026 biometric network speculation have yielded no official announcements or prototypes by mid-April, with resources redirected to AGI-scale infrastructure amid $25 billion revenue run-rate projections and IPO preparations, leaving scant room for non-essential platform launches before year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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