The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent, paired with a hawkish Summary of Economic Projections showing a 4.1 percent median endpoint for 2026, anchors the 86.5 percent market-implied probability of at least one additional hike this year. Persistent inflation, with core PCE near 3.4 percent and headline readings around 3.7 percent, remains well above the 2 percent goal, while resilient consumer spending, upward revisions to 2026 GDP growth, and a stable unemployment rate near 4.1 percent support the case for further tightening. CME Fed funds futures currently price roughly 88 percent odds of another move before year-end, reflecting trader consensus that upcoming October and December meetings could deliver additional policy adjustment amid elevated two-year Treasury yields above 4.7 percent.