Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% chance against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target and official ECB actions signaling a tighter monetary policy stance. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held the deposit facility rate steady at 2% while sharply raising its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing energy price surges from the Middle East conflict disrupting oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz. March inflation hit 2.6%, prompting economists like those at IMF and Morgan Stanley to forecast potential 50 basis point hikes instead of easing. Upcoming April and June policy meetings loom as key catalysts amid anchored but upward-revised inflation expectations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$25,095 Обс.
$25,095 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$25,095 Обс.
$25,095 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% chance against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target and official ECB actions signaling a tighter monetary policy stance. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held the deposit facility rate steady at 2% while sharply raising its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing energy price surges from the Middle East conflict disrupting oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz. March inflation hit 2.6%, prompting economists like those at IMF and Morgan Stanley to forecast potential 50 basis point hikes instead of easing. Upcoming April and June policy meetings loom as key catalysts amid anchored but upward-revised inflation expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$25,095Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% chance against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target and official ECB actions signaling a tighter monetary policy stance. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held the deposit facility rate steady at 2% while sharply raising its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing energy price surges from the Middle East conflict disrupting oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz. March inflation hit 2.6%, prompting economists like those at IMF and Morgan Stanley to forecast potential 50 basis point hikes instead of easing. Upcoming April and June policy meetings loom as key catalysts amid anchored but upward-revised inflation expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$25,095Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% chance against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target and official ECB actions signaling a tighter monetary policy stance. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held the deposit facility rate steady at 2% while sharply raising its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing energy price surges from the Middle East conflict disrupting oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz. March inflation hit 2.6%, prompting economists like those at IMF and Morgan Stanley to forecast potential 50 basis point hikes instead of easing. Upcoming April and June policy meetings loom as key catalysts amid anchored but upward-revised inflation expectations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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