Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have elevated euro-area energy prices and pushed headline inflation above the ECB's 2% target, shifting economist forecasts and forward curves toward at least one 25-basis-point deposit facility rate increase in 2026. The Governing Council held rates unchanged at 2.00% in April while adopting a data-dependent stance that explicitly allows for tightening if second-round effects and core readings persist amid resilient labor markets. This environment underpins the 98.5% implied probability, as market pricing and surveys now assign roughly 85-90% odds to a June hike. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data remain the primary developments that could still support an unchanged policy path through year-end.