Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price spikes that elevated euro-area inflation, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April while signaling readiness for tightening. Economist surveys and market pricing now assign high odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment supports the 98.3% implied probability for a rate increase by year-end. A rapid conflict de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data remain the main factors that could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$129,563 Обс.
$129,563 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$129,563 Обс.
$129,563 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price spikes that elevated euro-area inflation, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April while signaling readiness for tightening. Economist surveys and market pricing now assign high odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment supports the 98.3% implied probability for a rate increase by year-end. A rapid conflict de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data remain the main factors that could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$129,563Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price spikes that elevated euro-area inflation, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April while signaling readiness for tightening. Economist surveys and market pricing now assign high odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment supports the 98.3% implied probability for a rate increase by year-end. A rapid conflict de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data remain the main factors that could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$129,563Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price spikes that elevated euro-area inflation, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April while signaling readiness for tightening. Economist surveys and market pricing now assign high odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment supports the 98.3% implied probability for a rate increase by year-end. A rapid conflict de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data remain the main factors that could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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