ECB Governing Council held key interest rates steady at 2% deposit rate on March 19, 2026, but sharply raised its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing energy price surges from Middle East tensions including the Iran war. This upward revision, alongside eurozone inflation hitting 2.5% in March, has prompted banks like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley to forecast 25 basis point hikes in June and September, while IMF projects 50 basis points total in 2026 to achieve neutral policy. Traders' 74% implied probability for at least one hike reflects this hawkish shift in outlooks, though policymakers downplay an April 30 move amid soft labor markets; June remains pivotal.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$94,960 Обс.
$94,960 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$94,960 Обс.
$94,960 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.ECB Governing Council held key interest rates steady at 2% deposit rate on March 19, 2026, but sharply raised its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing energy price surges from Middle East tensions including the Iran war. This upward revision, alongside eurozone inflation hitting 2.5% in March, has prompted banks like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley to forecast 25 basis point hikes in June and September, while IMF projects 50 basis points total in 2026 to achieve neutral policy. Traders' 74% implied probability for at least one hike reflects this hawkish shift in outlooks, though policymakers downplay an April 30 move amid soft labor markets; June remains pivotal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$94,960Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.ECB Governing Council held key interest rates steady at 2% deposit rate on March 19, 2026, but sharply raised its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing energy price surges from Middle East tensions including the Iran war. This upward revision, alongside eurozone inflation hitting 2.5% in March, has prompted banks like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley to forecast 25 basis point hikes in June and September, while IMF projects 50 basis points total in 2026 to achieve neutral policy. Traders' 74% implied probability for at least one hike reflects this hawkish shift in outlooks, though policymakers downplay an April 30 move amid soft labor markets; June remains pivotal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$94,960Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...ECB Governing Council held key interest rates steady at 2% deposit rate on March 19, 2026, but sharply raised its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing energy price surges from Middle East tensions including the Iran war. This upward revision, alongside eurozone inflation hitting 2.5% in March, has prompted banks like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley to forecast 25 basis point hikes in June and September, while IMF projects 50 basis points total in 2026 to achieve neutral policy. Traders' 74% implied probability for at least one hike reflects this hawkish shift in outlooks, though policymakers downplay an April 30 move amid soft labor markets; June remains pivotal.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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