Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions and associated energy price spikes have elevated euro-area inflation readings and prompted the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% while adopting a more vigilant, data-dependent stance. Economist surveys and market pricing now place high odds on at least one 25-basis-point tightening in 2026, most likely beginning in June, to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core inflation. This environment underpins the 98.3% implied probability that the ECB will implement a rate hike by year-end. A swift conflict resolution that sharply reduces energy costs or unexpectedly soft incoming inflation and growth data remain the primary developments that could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$129,320 Обс.
$129,320 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$129,320 Обс.
$129,320 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions and associated energy price spikes have elevated euro-area inflation readings and prompted the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% while adopting a more vigilant, data-dependent stance. Economist surveys and market pricing now place high odds on at least one 25-basis-point tightening in 2026, most likely beginning in June, to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core inflation. This environment underpins the 98.3% implied probability that the ECB will implement a rate hike by year-end. A swift conflict resolution that sharply reduces energy costs or unexpectedly soft incoming inflation and growth data remain the primary developments that could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$129,320Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions and associated energy price spikes have elevated euro-area inflation readings and prompted the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% while adopting a more vigilant, data-dependent stance. Economist surveys and market pricing now place high odds on at least one 25-basis-point tightening in 2026, most likely beginning in June, to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core inflation. This environment underpins the 98.3% implied probability that the ECB will implement a rate hike by year-end. A swift conflict resolution that sharply reduces energy costs or unexpectedly soft incoming inflation and growth data remain the primary developments that could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$129,320Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions and associated energy price spikes have elevated euro-area inflation readings and prompted the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% while adopting a more vigilant, data-dependent stance. Economist surveys and market pricing now place high odds on at least one 25-basis-point tightening in 2026, most likely beginning in June, to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core inflation. This environment underpins the 98.3% implied probability that the ECB will implement a rate hike by year-end. A swift conflict resolution that sharply reduces energy costs or unexpectedly soft incoming inflation and growth data remain the primary developments that could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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