Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven sharp energy price increases that elevated euro-area headline inflation to 3.2 percent in May 2026, well above the ECB’s 2 percent target, while core readings also firmed. The Governing Council kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent in late April but adopted a data-dependent stance and signaled readiness to tighten if second-round effects emerge amid a resilient labor market. Economist surveys and forward curves now assign high probability to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely in June, producing the 98.3 percent implied probability on Polymarket. Rapid conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data remain the primary developments that could still support an unchanged policy path through year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоECB rate hike in 2026?
$129,563 Обс.
$129,563 Обс.
$129,563 Обс.
$129,563 Обс.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven sharp energy price increases that elevated euro-area headline inflation to 3.2 percent in May 2026, well above the ECB’s 2 percent target, while core readings also firmed. The Governing Council kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent in late April but adopted a data-dependent stance and signaled readiness to tighten if second-round effects emerge amid a resilient labor market. Economist surveys and forward curves now assign high probability to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely in June, producing the 98.3 percent implied probability on Polymarket. Rapid conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data remain the primary developments that could still support an unchanged policy path through year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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