Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a September 3 high near 96–97°F in Austin, with partly cloudy skies, south winds of 5–10 mph, and a 30–50% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. These conditions introduce moisture that increases cloud cover and supports convective cooling, limiting peak temperatures below the 98–100°F readings expected September 1–2. The 96–97°F bin leads market-implied odds because ensemble guidance clusters there, while slight model spread around storm timing and intensity supports secondary probability for 94–95°F and 98–99°F outcomes. Climatologically, the date’s 1991–2020 average high is 93.9°F, so current guidance reflects modest above-normal warmth amid typical early-September instability rather than extreme heat. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Austin on September 3?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 3?
96-97°F 37%
94-95°F 24%
98-99°F 22%
100-101°F 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 3, 2026
85°F or below
3%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
5%
90-91°F
9%
92-93°F
11%
94-95°F
24%
96-97°F
37%
98-99°F
22%
100-101°F
12%
102-103°F
6%
104°F or higher
2%
96-97°F 37%
94-95°F 24%
98-99°F 22%
100-101°F 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 3, 2026
85°F or below
$0 Обс.
3%
86-87°F
$10 Обс.
1%
88-89°F
$112 Обс.
5%
90-91°F
$15 Обс.
9%
92-93°F
$0 Обс.
11%
94-95°F
$80 Обс.
24%
96-97°F
$2 Обс.
37%
98-99°F
$27 Обс.
22%
100-101°F
$12 Обс.
12%
102-103°F
$7 Обс.
6%
104°F or higher
$0 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a September 3 high near 96–97°F in Austin, with partly cloudy skies, south winds of 5–10 mph, and a 30–50% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. These conditions introduce moisture that increases cloud cover and supports convective cooling, limiting peak temperatures below the 98–100°F readings expected September 1–2. The 96–97°F bin leads market-implied odds because ensemble guidance clusters there, while slight model spread around storm timing and intensity supports secondary probability for 94–95°F and 98–99°F outcomes. Climatologically, the date’s 1991–2020 average high is 93.9°F, so current guidance reflects modest above-normal warmth amid typical early-September instability rather than extreme heat. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 1, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$264Дата завершення
Sep 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 1, 2026, 2:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a September 3 high near 96–97°F in Austin, with partly cloudy skies, south winds of 5–10 mph, and a 30–50% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. These conditions introduce moisture that increases cloud cover and supports convective cooling, limiting peak temperatures below the 98–100°F readings expected September 1–2. The 96–97°F bin leads market-implied odds because ensemble guidance clusters there, while slight model spread around storm timing and intensity supports secondary probability for 94–95°F and 98–99°F outcomes. Climatologically, the date’s 1991–2020 average high is 93.9°F, so current guidance reflects modest above-normal warmth amid typical early-September instability rather than extreme heat. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$264Дата завершення
Sep 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 1, 2026, 2:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a September 3 high near 96–97°F in Austin, with partly cloudy skies, south winds of 5–10 mph, and a 30–50% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. These conditions introduce moisture that increases cloud cover and supports convective cooling, limiting peak temperatures below the 98–100°F readings expected September 1–2. The 96–97°F bin leads market-implied odds because ensemble guidance clusters there, while slight model spread around storm timing and intensity supports secondary probability for 94–95°F and 98–99°F outcomes. Climatologically, the date’s 1991–2020 average high is 93.9°F, so current guidance reflects modest above-normal warmth amid typical early-September instability rather than extreme heat. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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