Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate Miami highs near 87–90°F on September 3 amid typical late-summer humidity and southeast flow, positioning the 88–91°F bins as the leading market outcomes. Afternoon sea-breeze convergence and scattered thunderstorms—forecast with 70–80% probability—normally limit peak heating by increasing cloud cover and evaporative cooling, consistent with climatological averages around 89–90°F. Current model runs show no strong high-pressure ridge or suppressed convection that would push readings into the mid-90s, keeping the 92°F+ tail probabilities low. Updated short-range forecasts and any revisions to instability or steering winds over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift trader consensus.