Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including consistent runs from GFS and European guidance, indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum of 32–34 °C on 31 August under clear anticyclonic conditions, light southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover. This setup favors strong daytime insolation with limited boundary-layer mixing, typical for late-summer subsidence over the central Iberian Plateau. No heat-wave amplification or model divergence appears in the current guidance, keeping extremes above 36 °C or below 32 °C low-probability. Trader consensus, reflected in the 52.5 % implied probability on 34 °C, aligns with these stable observational trends and the narrow uncertainty range in short-range predictions. Updated model outputs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
34°C 53%
35°C 24%
33°C 19%
36°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
6%
33°C
19%
34°C
53%
35°C
24%
36°C
8%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 53%
35°C 24%
33°C 19%
36°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
$5 Обс.
1%
30°C
$0 Обс.
4%
31°C
$0 Обс.
2%
32°C
$5 Обс.
6%
33°C
$22 Обс.
19%
34°C
$75 Обс.
53%
35°C
$270 Обс.
24%
36°C
$0 Обс.
8%
37°C
$10 Обс.
<1%
38°C
$10 Обс.
<1%
39°C or higher
$20 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including consistent runs from GFS and European guidance, indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum of 32–34 °C on 31 August under clear anticyclonic conditions, light southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover. This setup favors strong daytime insolation with limited boundary-layer mixing, typical for late-summer subsidence over the central Iberian Plateau. No heat-wave amplification or model divergence appears in the current guidance, keeping extremes above 36 °C or below 32 °C low-probability. Trader consensus, reflected in the 52.5 % implied probability on 34 °C, aligns with these stable observational trends and the narrow uncertainty range in short-range predictions. Updated model outputs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$417Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including consistent runs from GFS and European guidance, indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum of 32–34 °C on 31 August under clear anticyclonic conditions, light southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover. This setup favors strong daytime insolation with limited boundary-layer mixing, typical for late-summer subsidence over the central Iberian Plateau. No heat-wave amplification or model divergence appears in the current guidance, keeping extremes above 36 °C or below 32 °C low-probability. Trader consensus, reflected in the 52.5 % implied probability on 34 °C, aligns with these stable observational trends and the narrow uncertainty range in short-range predictions. Updated model outputs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$417Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including consistent runs from GFS and European guidance, indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum of 32–34 °C on 31 August under clear anticyclonic conditions, light southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover. This setup favors strong daytime insolation with limited boundary-layer mixing, typical for late-summer subsidence over the central Iberian Plateau. No heat-wave amplification or model divergence appears in the current guidance, keeping extremes above 36 °C or below 32 °C low-probability. Trader consensus, reflected in the 52.5 % implied probability on 34 °C, aligns with these stable observational trends and the narrow uncertainty range in short-range predictions. Updated model outputs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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