Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for a high temperature of 70°F or higher in San Francisco on April 19, driven by confirmed hourly observations from the National Weather Service at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), where temperatures peaked above 70°F amid clear skies, light offshore winds, and high pressure ridging that suppressed the typical marine layer. This exceeded the April climatological average of 64°F, as model guidance from NOAA's Global Forecast System had anticipated above-normal warmth from persistent ridging over California. Scenarios challenging this include a rare official revision in the forthcoming Local Climatological Report—due today—if preliminary METAR data overstated the peak due to sensor anomaly, though multiple station validations make this improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in San Francisco on April 19?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 19?
70°F or higher 100.0%
51°F or below <1%
52-53°F <1%
54-55°F <1%
$79,974 Обс.
$79,974 Обс.
Apr 19, 2026
51°F or below
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70°F or higher
Yes
70°F or higher 100.0%
51°F or below <1%
52-53°F <1%
54-55°F <1%
$79,974 Обс.
$79,974 Обс.
Apr 19, 2026
51°F or below
$1,584 Обс.
No
52-53°F
$2,544 Обс.
No
54-55°F
$3,872 Обс.
No
56-57°F
$1,230 Обс.
No
58-59°F
$2,656 Обс.
No
60-61°F
$4,636 Обс.
No
62-63°F
$5,067 Обс.
No
64-65°F
$5,851 Обс.
No
66-67°F
$6,398 Обс.
No
68-69°F
$32,141 Обс.
No
70°F or higher
$13,995 Обс.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for a high temperature of 70°F or higher in San Francisco on April 19, driven by confirmed hourly observations from the National Weather Service at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), where temperatures peaked above 70°F amid clear skies, light offshore winds, and high pressure ridging that suppressed the typical marine layer. This exceeded the April climatological average of 64°F, as model guidance from NOAA's Global Forecast System had anticipated above-normal warmth from persistent ridging over California. Scenarios challenging this include a rare official revision in the forthcoming Local Climatological Report—due today—if preliminary METAR data overstated the peak due to sensor anomaly, though multiple station validations make this improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 17, 2026, 12:44 AM ET
Обсяг
$79,974Дата завершення
Apr 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 17, 2026, 12:44 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for a high temperature of 70°F or higher in San Francisco on April 19, driven by confirmed hourly observations from the National Weather Service at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), where temperatures peaked above 70°F amid clear skies, light offshore winds, and high pressure ridging that suppressed the typical marine layer. This exceeded the April climatological average of 64°F, as model guidance from NOAA's Global Forecast System had anticipated above-normal warmth from persistent ridging over California. Scenarios challenging this include a rare official revision in the forthcoming Local Climatological Report—due today—if preliminary METAR data overstated the peak due to sensor anomaly, though multiple station validations make this improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$79,974Дата завершення
Apr 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 17, 2026, 12:44 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for a high temperature of 70°F or higher in San Francisco on April 19, driven by confirmed hourly observations from the National Weather Service at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), where temperatures peaked above 70°F amid clear skies, light offshore winds, and high pressure ridging that suppressed the typical marine layer. This exceeded the April climatological average of 64°F, as model guidance from NOAA's Global Forecast System had anticipated above-normal warmth from persistent ridging over California. Scenarios challenging this include a rare official revision in the forthcoming Local Climatological Report—due today—if preliminary METAR data overstated the peak due to sensor anomaly, though multiple station validations make this improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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