Official observations from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) confirm a maximum temperature of 30°C at key São Paulo stations on April 18, driving trader consensus to 100% market-implied probability for that outcome as the definitive resolution data. This aligns with prevailing dry autumn conditions under subtropical high pressure, where numerical weather prediction models like those from CPTEC/INPE had forecasted highs near 30°C in the days prior, with minimal convective activity to push temperatures higher. While daily maxima measurements carry high reliability from calibrated sensors, rare post hoc revisions during quality control or discrepancies across secondary stations (e.g., Congonhas vs. Guarulhos airports) could theoretically alter positioning, though no such issues have surfaced in initial reports.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 18?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 18?
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$81,319 Обс.
$81,319 Обс.
Apr 18, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$81,319 Обс.
$81,319 Обс.
Apr 18, 2026
24°C or below
$3,313 Обс.
No
25°C
$3,754 Обс.
No
26°C
$9,161 Обс.
No
27°C
$11,952 Обс.
No
28°C
$12,783 Обс.
No
29°C
$8,289 Обс.
No
30°C
$16,069 Обс.
Yes
31°C
$8,589 Обс.
No
32°C
$2,898 Обс.
No
33°C
$1,795 Обс.
No
34°C or higher
$2,717 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) confirm a maximum temperature of 30°C at key São Paulo stations on April 18, driving trader consensus to 100% market-implied probability for that outcome as the definitive resolution data. This aligns with prevailing dry autumn conditions under subtropical high pressure, where numerical weather prediction models like those from CPTEC/INPE had forecasted highs near 30°C in the days prior, with minimal convective activity to push temperatures higher. While daily maxima measurements carry high reliability from calibrated sensors, rare post hoc revisions during quality control or discrepancies across secondary stations (e.g., Congonhas vs. Guarulhos airports) could theoretically alter positioning, though no such issues have surfaced in initial reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 16, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
Обсяг
$81,319Дата завершення
Apr 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 12:26 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) confirm a maximum temperature of 30°C at key São Paulo stations on April 18, driving trader consensus to 100% market-implied probability for that outcome as the definitive resolution data. This aligns with prevailing dry autumn conditions under subtropical high pressure, where numerical weather prediction models like those from CPTEC/INPE had forecasted highs near 30°C in the days prior, with minimal convective activity to push temperatures higher. While daily maxima measurements carry high reliability from calibrated sensors, rare post hoc revisions during quality control or discrepancies across secondary stations (e.g., Congonhas vs. Guarulhos airports) could theoretically alter positioning, though no such issues have surfaced in initial reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$81,319Дата завершення
Apr 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 12:26 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Official observations from Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) confirm a maximum temperature of 30°C at key São Paulo stations on April 18, driving trader consensus to 100% market-implied probability for that outcome as the definitive resolution data. This aligns with prevailing dry autumn conditions under subtropical high pressure, where numerical weather prediction models like those from CPTEC/INPE had forecasted highs near 30°C in the days prior, with minimal convective activity to push temperatures higher. While daily maxima measurements carry high reliability from calibrated sensors, rare post hoc revisions during quality control or discrepancies across secondary stations (e.g., Congonhas vs. Guarulhos airports) could theoretically alter positioning, though no such issues have surfaced in initial reports.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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