Recent official guidance from Poland’s IMGW and ECMWF ensemble runs positions Warsaw under generally stable summer conditions with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover through August 9, supporting efficient daytime heating from peak insolation. Model consensus centers on a maximum of 25–27 °C, with hourly guidance showing temperatures climbing through the mid-20s by afternoon before any late-day boundary-layer mixing or scattered cumulus can cap the peak. This narrow spread, combined with typical August climatology around 23–25 °C, explains the dominant market-implied probabilities on 25 °C and 26 °C while leaving modest weight on 24 °C if increased cloudiness develops. Updated short-range model runs and IMGW nowcasts over the next 48 hours will refine the exact maximum before observations are finalized.