Kentucky’s 4th congressional district’s consistent Republican lean, shown by Donald Trump’s 19.5-point margin in 2024, anchors the overwhelming market odds for Ed Gallrein. Gallrein secured the nomination by defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 Republican primary, backed by substantial outside spending and a Trump endorsement that unified party voters despite some lingering internal divisions. Democrat Melissa Strange won her primary but faces structural barriers in a district rated solid Republican by multiple forecasters, with no recent polling or events shifting the fundamentals. Late developments such as scandals, health issues, or major national shifts could still influence the November outcome before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоKY-04 House Election Winner
KY-04 House Election Winner
$44,855 Обс.
$44,855 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Gallrein (R)
98%
Melissa Strange (D)
1%
$44,855 Обс.
$44,855 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Gallrein (R)
$29,314 Обс.
98%
Melissa Strange (D)
$15,541 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky’s 4th congressional district’s consistent Republican lean, shown by Donald Trump’s 19.5-point margin in 2024, anchors the overwhelming market odds for Ed Gallrein. Gallrein secured the nomination by defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 Republican primary, backed by substantial outside spending and a Trump endorsement that unified party voters despite some lingering internal divisions. Democrat Melissa Strange won her primary but faces structural barriers in a district rated solid Republican by multiple forecasters, with no recent polling or events shifting the fundamentals. Late developments such as scandals, health issues, or major national shifts could still influence the November outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$44,855Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky’s 4th congressional district’s consistent Republican lean, shown by Donald Trump’s 19.5-point margin in 2024, anchors the overwhelming market odds for Ed Gallrein. Gallrein secured the nomination by defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 Republican primary, backed by substantial outside spending and a Trump endorsement that unified party voters despite some lingering internal divisions. Democrat Melissa Strange won her primary but faces structural barriers in a district rated solid Republican by multiple forecasters, with no recent polling or events shifting the fundamentals. Late developments such as scandals, health issues, or major national shifts could still influence the November outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$44,855Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky’s 4th congressional district’s consistent Republican lean, shown by Donald Trump’s 19.5-point margin in 2024, anchors the overwhelming market odds for Ed Gallrein. Gallrein secured the nomination by defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 Republican primary, backed by substantial outside spending and a Trump endorsement that unified party voters despite some lingering internal divisions. Democrat Melissa Strange won her primary but faces structural barriers in a district rated solid Republican by multiple forecasters, with no recent polling or events shifting the fundamentals. Late developments such as scandals, health issues, or major national shifts could still influence the November outcome before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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