Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS indicate overnight lows in Paris on September 14 will likely settle between 15–17°C, driven by light northwest winds, variable cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, and a lingering warm air mass under high pressure. These conditions produce only modest temperature drops after sunset, with the exact minimum hinging on the timing of any clearer intervals and dew point depression. Model consensus places the most probable range near 16°C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds of 15°C and 16°C, while historical September 14 averages near 11.6°C highlight the current anomaly. Updated high-resolution runs from Météo-France and the next ECMWF cycle will provide the key data releases traders are monitoring before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Paris on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 14?
18°C 39%
19°C 39%
17°C 37%
16°C 33%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
12°C or below
5%
13°C
22%
14°C
24%
15°C
30%
16°C
30%
17°C
37%
18°C
39%
19°C
39%
20°C
8%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
2%
18°C 39%
19°C 39%
17°C 37%
16°C 33%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Обс.
5%
13°C
$0 Обс.
22%
14°C
$0 Обс.
24%
15°C
$104 Обс.
30%
16°C
$40 Обс.
30%
17°C
$0 Обс.
37%
18°C
$0 Обс.
39%
19°C
$0 Обс.
39%
20°C
$0 Обс.
8%
21°C
$0 Обс.
2%
22°C or higher
$0 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS indicate overnight lows in Paris on September 14 will likely settle between 15–17°C, driven by light northwest winds, variable cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, and a lingering warm air mass under high pressure. These conditions produce only modest temperature drops after sunset, with the exact minimum hinging on the timing of any clearer intervals and dew point depression. Model consensus places the most probable range near 16°C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds of 15°C and 16°C, while historical September 14 averages near 11.6°C highlight the current anomaly. Updated high-resolution runs from Météo-France and the next ECMWF cycle will provide the key data releases traders are monitoring before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$144Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS indicate overnight lows in Paris on September 14 will likely settle between 15–17°C, driven by light northwest winds, variable cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, and a lingering warm air mass under high pressure. These conditions produce only modest temperature drops after sunset, with the exact minimum hinging on the timing of any clearer intervals and dew point depression. Model consensus places the most probable range near 16°C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds of 15°C and 16°C, while historical September 14 averages near 11.6°C highlight the current anomaly. Updated high-resolution runs from Météo-France and the next ECMWF cycle will provide the key data releases traders are monitoring before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$144Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS indicate overnight lows in Paris on September 14 will likely settle between 15–17°C, driven by light northwest winds, variable cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, and a lingering warm air mass under high pressure. These conditions produce only modest temperature drops after sunset, with the exact minimum hinging on the timing of any clearer intervals and dew point depression. Model consensus places the most probable range near 16°C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds of 15°C and 16°C, while historical September 14 averages near 11.6°C highlight the current anomaly. Updated high-resolution runs from Météo-France and the next ECMWF cycle will provide the key data releases traders are monitoring before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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