Current forecast models from GFS and ECMWF show a consensus overnight minimum near 14–15°C in Paris on September 13 under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and surface high pressure that limits radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 14°C (43.5%) and 15°C (28.5%), as ensemble spreads place the bulk of probability in that narrow range while historical September averages sit lower near 12°C. Recent model runs have shown minimal shifts, with any downward revision toward 13°C (16.5% implied) requiring stronger clear-sky cooling or wind shifts not currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the stable synoptic pattern against typical model uncertainty in minimum-temperature guidance this far ahead of the overnight period.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Paris on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 13?
14°C 43%
15°C 29%
17°C 16%
11°C 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 13, 2026
9°C or below
8%
10°C
3%
11°C
14%
12°C
6%
13°C
13%
14°C
43%
15°C
29%
16°C
11%
17°C
16%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
2%
14°C 43%
15°C 29%
17°C 16%
11°C 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 13, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Обс.
8%
10°C
$0 Обс.
3%
11°C
$0 Обс.
14%
12°C
$358 Обс.
6%
13°C
$636 Обс.
13%
14°C
$1,021 Обс.
43%
15°C
$407 Обс.
29%
16°C
$118 Обс.
11%
17°C
$0 Обс.
16%
18°C
$0 Обс.
2%
19°C or higher
$0 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from GFS and ECMWF show a consensus overnight minimum near 14–15°C in Paris on September 13 under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and surface high pressure that limits radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 14°C (43.5%) and 15°C (28.5%), as ensemble spreads place the bulk of probability in that narrow range while historical September averages sit lower near 12°C. Recent model runs have shown minimal shifts, with any downward revision toward 13°C (16.5% implied) requiring stronger clear-sky cooling or wind shifts not currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the stable synoptic pattern against typical model uncertainty in minimum-temperature guidance this far ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 11, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,540Дата завершення
Sep 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from GFS and ECMWF show a consensus overnight minimum near 14–15°C in Paris on September 13 under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and surface high pressure that limits radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 14°C (43.5%) and 15°C (28.5%), as ensemble spreads place the bulk of probability in that narrow range while historical September averages sit lower near 12°C. Recent model runs have shown minimal shifts, with any downward revision toward 13°C (16.5% implied) requiring stronger clear-sky cooling or wind shifts not currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the stable synoptic pattern against typical model uncertainty in minimum-temperature guidance this far ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$2,540Дата завершення
Sep 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from GFS and ECMWF show a consensus overnight minimum near 14–15°C in Paris on September 13 under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and surface high pressure that limits radiational cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 14°C (43.5%) and 15°C (28.5%), as ensemble spreads place the bulk of probability in that narrow range while historical September averages sit lower near 12°C. Recent model runs have shown minimal shifts, with any downward revision toward 13°C (16.5% implied) requiring stronger clear-sky cooling or wind shifts not currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the stable synoptic pattern against typical model uncertainty in minimum-temperature guidance this far ahead of the overnight period.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання