Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in June after winning a crowded primary to succeed retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, drawing endorsements from Nadler, Governor Kathy Hochul, and former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The Manhattan-based district’s strong Democratic registration advantage—more than six times the Republican share—positions the nominee as the clear favorite in the November general election against Republican Caroline Shinkle. Trader consensus at 97.5% for Lasher reflects this structural edge and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major candidate-specific developments such as health events or scandals in the final weeks, though the district’s partisan baseline has historically limited such volatility in similar contests.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$32,897 Обс.
$32,897 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
97%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
<1%
$32,897 Обс.
$32,897 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
$17,262 Обс.
97%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
$15,635 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in June after winning a crowded primary to succeed retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, drawing endorsements from Nadler, Governor Kathy Hochul, and former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The Manhattan-based district’s strong Democratic registration advantage—more than six times the Republican share—positions the nominee as the clear favorite in the November general election against Republican Caroline Shinkle. Trader consensus at 97.5% for Lasher reflects this structural edge and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major candidate-specific developments such as health events or scandals in the final weeks, though the district’s partisan baseline has historically limited such volatility in similar contests.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$32,897Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in June after winning a crowded primary to succeed retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, drawing endorsements from Nadler, Governor Kathy Hochul, and former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The Manhattan-based district’s strong Democratic registration advantage—more than six times the Republican share—positions the nominee as the clear favorite in the November general election against Republican Caroline Shinkle. Trader consensus at 97.5% for Lasher reflects this structural edge and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major candidate-specific developments such as health events or scandals in the final weeks, though the district’s partisan baseline has historically limited such volatility in similar contests.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$32,897Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in June after winning a crowded primary to succeed retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, drawing endorsements from Nadler, Governor Kathy Hochul, and former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The Manhattan-based district’s strong Democratic registration advantage—more than six times the Republican share—positions the nominee as the clear favorite in the November general election against Republican Caroline Shinkle. Trader consensus at 97.5% for Lasher reflects this structural edge and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major candidate-specific developments such as health events or scandals in the final weeks, though the district’s partisan baseline has historically limited such volatility in similar contests.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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