The Democratic nominee Micah Lasher secured the nomination in New York’s 12th congressional district following the June 23, 2026 primary, in a seat long defined by heavy Democratic registration advantages and consistent general-election margins exceeding 30 points. Traders have priced this outcome at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party, consistent with historical voting patterns in Manhattan-based districts and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts. The Republican nominee trails at 2.6 percent. Factors that could still alter the result include an unforeseen scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, a national political realignment of unusual scale before November 3, or exceptionally low Democratic turnout that narrows the structural gap.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$32,026 Обс.
$32,026 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$32,026 Обс.
$32,026 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$17,187 Обс.
96%
Republican Party
$14,839 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee Micah Lasher secured the nomination in New York’s 12th congressional district following the June 23, 2026 primary, in a seat long defined by heavy Democratic registration advantages and consistent general-election margins exceeding 30 points. Traders have priced this outcome at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party, consistent with historical voting patterns in Manhattan-based districts and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts. The Republican nominee trails at 2.6 percent. Factors that could still alter the result include an unforeseen scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, a national political realignment of unusual scale before November 3, or exceptionally low Democratic turnout that narrows the structural gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$32,026Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee Micah Lasher secured the nomination in New York’s 12th congressional district following the June 23, 2026 primary, in a seat long defined by heavy Democratic registration advantages and consistent general-election margins exceeding 30 points. Traders have priced this outcome at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party, consistent with historical voting patterns in Manhattan-based districts and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts. The Republican nominee trails at 2.6 percent. Factors that could still alter the result include an unforeseen scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, a national political realignment of unusual scale before November 3, or exceptionally low Democratic turnout that narrows the structural gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$32,026Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic nominee Micah Lasher secured the nomination in New York’s 12th congressional district following the June 23, 2026 primary, in a seat long defined by heavy Democratic registration advantages and consistent general-election margins exceeding 30 points. Traders have priced this outcome at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party, consistent with historical voting patterns in Manhattan-based districts and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts. The Republican nominee trails at 2.6 percent. Factors that could still alter the result include an unforeseen scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, a national political realignment of unusual scale before November 3, or exceptionally low Democratic turnout that narrows the structural gap.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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