Joseph Morelle maintains a commanding lead in the NY-25 House race due to the district’s D+10 partisan voter index, his incumbency since 2018, and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. All major forecasters rate the Rochester-area seat, covering Monroe County and part of Ontario County, as Solid or Safe Democratic. McIntyre, a first-term Monroe County legislator, secured the Republican nomination without opposition but trails significantly in fundraising and name recognition. Morelle’s June primary victory with 63 percent of the vote further reinforced his position ahead of the November 3 general election. The market’s 95.5 percent implied probability for Morelle reflects this structural advantage, though an unusually strong national Republican wave or late-breaking local controversy could still narrow the margin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNY-25 House Election Winner
NY-25 House Election Winner
$33,113 Обс.
$33,113 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Joseph Morelle (D)
96%
Virginia McIntyre (R)
3%
$33,113 Обс.
$33,113 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Joseph Morelle (D)
$22,758 Обс.
96%
Virginia McIntyre (R)
$10,354 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Joseph Morelle maintains a commanding lead in the NY-25 House race due to the district’s D+10 partisan voter index, his incumbency since 2018, and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. All major forecasters rate the Rochester-area seat, covering Monroe County and part of Ontario County, as Solid or Safe Democratic. McIntyre, a first-term Monroe County legislator, secured the Republican nomination without opposition but trails significantly in fundraising and name recognition. Morelle’s June primary victory with 63 percent of the vote further reinforced his position ahead of the November 3 general election. The market’s 95.5 percent implied probability for Morelle reflects this structural advantage, though an unusually strong national Republican wave or late-breaking local controversy could still narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$33,113Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Joseph Morelle maintains a commanding lead in the NY-25 House race due to the district’s D+10 partisan voter index, his incumbency since 2018, and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. All major forecasters rate the Rochester-area seat, covering Monroe County and part of Ontario County, as Solid or Safe Democratic. McIntyre, a first-term Monroe County legislator, secured the Republican nomination without opposition but trails significantly in fundraising and name recognition. Morelle’s June primary victory with 63 percent of the vote further reinforced his position ahead of the November 3 general election. The market’s 95.5 percent implied probability for Morelle reflects this structural advantage, though an unusually strong national Republican wave or late-breaking local controversy could still narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$33,113Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Joseph Morelle maintains a commanding lead in the NY-25 House race due to the district’s D+10 partisan voter index, his incumbency since 2018, and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. All major forecasters rate the Rochester-area seat, covering Monroe County and part of Ontario County, as Solid or Safe Democratic. McIntyre, a first-term Monroe County legislator, secured the Republican nomination without opposition but trails significantly in fundraising and name recognition. Morelle’s June primary victory with 63 percent of the vote further reinforced his position ahead of the November 3 general election. The market’s 95.5 percent implied probability for Morelle reflects this structural advantage, though an unusually strong national Republican wave or late-breaking local controversy could still narrow the margin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання