Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, his strong primary performance, and established name recognition against Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the contest as solidly Republican and polling averages showing Cotton ahead by double digits. A recent July survey narrowed the gap to within the margin of error, yet broader indicators of partisan lean and fundraising favor the incumbent. Scenarios that could shift outcomes include a major scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance boosting turnout, though these remain low-probability events given structural factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtArkansas Senate Election Winner
Arkansas Senate Election Winner
$16,249 KL.
$16,249 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
94%
Democrat
6%
$16,249 KL.
$16,249 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$12,081 KL.
94%
Democrat
$4,167 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, his strong primary performance, and established name recognition against Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the contest as solidly Republican and polling averages showing Cotton ahead by double digits. A recent July survey narrowed the gap to within the margin of error, yet broader indicators of partisan lean and fundraising favor the incumbent. Scenarios that could shift outcomes include a major scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance boosting turnout, though these remain low-probability events given structural factors.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$16,249Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, his strong primary performance, and established name recognition against Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the contest as solidly Republican and polling averages showing Cotton ahead by double digits. A recent July survey narrowed the gap to within the margin of error, yet broader indicators of partisan lean and fundraising favor the incumbent. Scenarios that could shift outcomes include a major scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance boosting turnout, though these remain low-probability events given structural factors.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$16,249Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, his strong primary performance, and established name recognition against Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings classifying the contest as solidly Republican and polling averages showing Cotton ahead by double digits. A recent July survey narrowed the gap to within the margin of error, yet broader indicators of partisan lean and fundraising favor the incumbent. Scenarios that could shift outcomes include a major scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance boosting turnout, though these remain low-probability events given structural factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp