Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race, with traders assigning a 94.9% implied probability to a Republican victory. Arkansas's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, combined with Cotton's strong primary performance and established incumbency, underpin the market consensus. Recent polling shows Cotton maintaining a lead despite one closer survey, while nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safely Republican. A Democratic upset would require significant shifts such as a major candidate-specific development, unexpected turnout surge among opposition voters, or late national political realignment within the final months before the November election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtArkansas Senate Election Winner
Arkansas Senate Election Winner
$16,047 KL.
$16,047 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
95%
Democrat
4%
$16,047 KL.
$16,047 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$12,081 KL.
95%
Democrat
$3,965 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race, with traders assigning a 94.9% implied probability to a Republican victory. Arkansas's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, combined with Cotton's strong primary performance and established incumbency, underpin the market consensus. Recent polling shows Cotton maintaining a lead despite one closer survey, while nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safely Republican. A Democratic upset would require significant shifts such as a major candidate-specific development, unexpected turnout surge among opposition voters, or late national political realignment within the final months before the November election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$16,047Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race, with traders assigning a 94.9% implied probability to a Republican victory. Arkansas's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, combined with Cotton's strong primary performance and established incumbency, underpin the market consensus. Recent polling shows Cotton maintaining a lead despite one closer survey, while nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safely Republican. A Democratic upset would require significant shifts such as a major candidate-specific development, unexpected turnout surge among opposition voters, or late national political realignment within the final months before the November election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$16,047Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race, with traders assigning a 94.9% implied probability to a Republican victory. Arkansas's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, combined with Cotton's strong primary performance and established incumbency, underpin the market consensus. Recent polling shows Cotton maintaining a lead despite one closer survey, while nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safely Republican. A Democratic upset would require significant shifts such as a major candidate-specific development, unexpected turnout surge among opposition voters, or late national political realignment within the final months before the November election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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