Traders assign a 74.5% probability to a blue wave in the 2026 midterms largely because the president's party has historically faced net losses in such elections, amplified by Democrats' consistent polling edge of roughly six points nationally and strong overperformance in 2026 special elections. Recent redistricting efforts in states like Texas and California, combined with Democratic gains in vulnerable Republican House seats, have reinforced expectations of a shift toward Democratic majorities. Special-election swings averaging near double digits earlier in the cycle—though moderating in summer—align with patterns seen before prior Democratic waves, while Senate forecasts show competitive but winnable races for the opposition. These factors sustain the implied probability despite countervailing Republican fundraising leads and occasional special-election cooling.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$52,969 KL.
$52,969 KL.
Nov 30, 2026
$52,969 KL.
$52,969 KL.
Nov 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTraders assign a 74.5% probability to a blue wave in the 2026 midterms largely because the president's party has historically faced net losses in such elections, amplified by Democrats' consistent polling edge of roughly six points nationally and strong overperformance in 2026 special elections. Recent redistricting efforts in states like Texas and California, combined with Democratic gains in vulnerable Republican House seats, have reinforced expectations of a shift toward Democratic majorities. Special-election swings averaging near double digits earlier in the cycle—though moderating in summer—align with patterns seen before prior Democratic waves, while Senate forecasts show competitive but winnable races for the opposition. These factors sustain the implied probability despite countervailing Republican fundraising leads and occasional special-election cooling.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Thị trường mở: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Khối lượng
$52,969Ngày kết thúc
Nov 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTraders assign a 74.5% probability to a blue wave in the 2026 midterms largely because the president's party has historically faced net losses in such elections, amplified by Democrats' consistent polling edge of roughly six points nationally and strong overperformance in 2026 special elections. Recent redistricting efforts in states like Texas and California, combined with Democratic gains in vulnerable Republican House seats, have reinforced expectations of a shift toward Democratic majorities. Special-election swings averaging near double digits earlier in the cycle—though moderating in summer—align with patterns seen before prior Democratic waves, while Senate forecasts show competitive but winnable races for the opposition. These factors sustain the implied probability despite countervailing Republican fundraising leads and occasional special-election cooling.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Khối lượng
$52,969Ngày kết thúc
Nov 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 74.5% probability to a blue wave in the 2026 midterms largely because the president's party has historically faced net losses in such elections, amplified by Democrats' consistent polling edge of roughly six points nationally and strong overperformance in 2026 special elections. Recent redistricting efforts in states like Texas and California, combined with Democratic gains in vulnerable Republican House seats, have reinforced expectations of a shift toward Democratic majorities. Special-election swings averaging near double digits earlier in the cycle—though moderating in summer—align with patterns seen before prior Democratic waves, while Senate forecasts show competitive but winnable races for the opposition. These factors sustain the implied probability despite countervailing Republican fundraising leads and occasional special-election cooling.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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