Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur's long congressional tenure since 1983, strong name recognition in northwest Ohio, and significant fundraising edge have anchored trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party in the OH-09 race. Mid-decade redistricting added Republican-leaning areas and shifted the district toward a Lean Republican or toss-up rating, narrowing Kaptur's 2024 margin and positioning Republican nominee Derek Merrin as the main challenger after his May 2026 primary win. Limited recent polling shows mixed results with some surveys indicating a close contest or slight Republican lead, yet the implied probabilities reflect traders weighing incumbency advantages and turnout patterns over the redrawn map's structural shifts ahead of the November general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOH-09 House Election Winner
OH-09 House Election Winner
$27,465 KL.
$27,465 KL.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
74%
Republican Party
27%
$27,465 KL.
$27,465 KL.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,383 KL.
74%
Republican Party
$24,082 KL.
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur's long congressional tenure since 1983, strong name recognition in northwest Ohio, and significant fundraising edge have anchored trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party in the OH-09 race. Mid-decade redistricting added Republican-leaning areas and shifted the district toward a Lean Republican or toss-up rating, narrowing Kaptur's 2024 margin and positioning Republican nominee Derek Merrin as the main challenger after his May 2026 primary win. Limited recent polling shows mixed results with some surveys indicating a close contest or slight Republican lead, yet the implied probabilities reflect traders weighing incumbency advantages and turnout patterns over the redrawn map's structural shifts ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Khối lượng
$27,465Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur's long congressional tenure since 1983, strong name recognition in northwest Ohio, and significant fundraising edge have anchored trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party in the OH-09 race. Mid-decade redistricting added Republican-leaning areas and shifted the district toward a Lean Republican or toss-up rating, narrowing Kaptur's 2024 margin and positioning Republican nominee Derek Merrin as the main challenger after his May 2026 primary win. Limited recent polling shows mixed results with some surveys indicating a close contest or slight Republican lead, yet the implied probabilities reflect traders weighing incumbency advantages and turnout patterns over the redrawn map's structural shifts ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$27,465Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur's long congressional tenure since 1983, strong name recognition in northwest Ohio, and significant fundraising edge have anchored trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party in the OH-09 race. Mid-decade redistricting added Republican-leaning areas and shifted the district toward a Lean Republican or toss-up rating, narrowing Kaptur's 2024 margin and positioning Republican nominee Derek Merrin as the main challenger after his May 2026 primary win. Limited recent polling shows mixed results with some surveys indicating a close contest or slight Republican lead, yet the implied probabilities reflect traders weighing incumbency advantages and turnout patterns over the redrawn map's structural shifts ahead of the November general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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