Incumbent Democratic Representative Josh Harder advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with roughly 58-60 percent of the vote, securing a matchup against Republican John McBride in the November general election. The district's underlying partisan composition, combined with Harder's established fundraising and name recognition, underpins trader consensus at 93.5 percent for a Democratic victory. This positioning aligns with historical patterns in California House contests where incumbents in lean-D districts prevail absent major disruptions. Potential shifts could stem from a late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong Republican national momentum that alters turnout in this Central Valley seat.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-09 House Election Winner
CA-09 House Election Winner
$15,059 KL.
$15,059 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$15,059 KL.
$15,059 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,243 KL.
94%
Republican Party
$3,817 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Josh Harder advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with roughly 58-60 percent of the vote, securing a matchup against Republican John McBride in the November general election. The district's underlying partisan composition, combined with Harder's established fundraising and name recognition, underpins trader consensus at 93.5 percent for a Democratic victory. This positioning aligns with historical patterns in California House contests where incumbents in lean-D districts prevail absent major disruptions. Potential shifts could stem from a late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong Republican national momentum that alters turnout in this Central Valley seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Khối lượng
$15,059Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Josh Harder advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with roughly 58-60 percent of the vote, securing a matchup against Republican John McBride in the November general election. The district's underlying partisan composition, combined with Harder's established fundraising and name recognition, underpins trader consensus at 93.5 percent for a Democratic victory. This positioning aligns with historical patterns in California House contests where incumbents in lean-D districts prevail absent major disruptions. Potential shifts could stem from a late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong Republican national momentum that alters turnout in this Central Valley seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$15,059Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Josh Harder advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with roughly 58-60 percent of the vote, securing a matchup against Republican John McBride in the November general election. The district's underlying partisan composition, combined with Harder's established fundraising and name recognition, underpins trader consensus at 93.5 percent for a Democratic victory. This positioning aligns with historical patterns in California House contests where incumbents in lean-D districts prevail absent major disruptions. Potential shifts could stem from a late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong Republican national momentum that alters turnout in this Central Valley seat.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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