Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with prediction markets assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. Redistricting has strengthened the district's Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris's 10-point margin there in 2024, while multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Min advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 45% of the vote against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux at 25%, benefiting from incumbency and structural advantages in a coastal Orange County seat that includes Irvine and Laguna Beach. A major national Republican surge, significant local scandal, or sharply depressed Democratic turnout could still narrow the gap, though current polling averages and historical patterns in similar districts limit those risks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-47 House Election Winner
CA-47 House Election Winner
$14,137 KL.
$14,137 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$14,137 KL.
$14,137 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,261 KL.
95%
Republican Party
$10,876 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with prediction markets assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. Redistricting has strengthened the district's Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris's 10-point margin there in 2024, while multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Min advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 45% of the vote against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux at 25%, benefiting from incumbency and structural advantages in a coastal Orange County seat that includes Irvine and Laguna Beach. A major national Republican surge, significant local scandal, or sharply depressed Democratic turnout could still narrow the gap, though current polling averages and historical patterns in similar districts limit those risks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$14,137Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with prediction markets assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. Redistricting has strengthened the district's Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris's 10-point margin there in 2024, while multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Min advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 45% of the vote against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux at 25%, benefiting from incumbency and structural advantages in a coastal Orange County seat that includes Irvine and Laguna Beach. A major national Republican surge, significant local scandal, or sharply depressed Democratic turnout could still narrow the gap, though current polling averages and historical patterns in similar districts limit those risks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$14,137Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with prediction markets assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. Redistricting has strengthened the district's Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris's 10-point margin there in 2024, while multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Min advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 45% of the vote against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux at 25%, benefiting from incumbency and structural advantages in a coastal Orange County seat that includes Irvine and Laguna Beach. A major national Republican surge, significant local scandal, or sharply depressed Democratic turnout could still narrow the gap, though current polling averages and historical patterns in similar districts limit those risks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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