**Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are sustaining extreme heat across central Texas, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for sunny skies and highs near 104–105°F on August 25.** Multiple model runs and private forecasters converge on 100–104°F, reflecting limited cloud cover, low humidity, and light south winds that allow strong daytime heating without significant mixing or moisture. The 31% market weighting on 102–103°F versus 26.5% on 104–105°F captures the narrow uncertainty band typical when official guidance sits at the upper end of the 100–105°F envelope. Minor differences hinge on exact peak insolation timing, local urban heat effects around Austin stations, and any last-minute adjustments to wind or boundary-layer moisture in the morning model updates. With resolution expected within hours of the daily maximum, traders are closely tracking the next NWS point forecast revisions.