Current model consensus from sources including the Met Office and regional forecasts points to a daytime high of 16–19°C in Buenos Aires on August 31 under stable late-winter conditions, with easterly flow off the Atlantic, light winds, and variable cloud cover limiting strong diurnal warming. Late August climatology typically features highs near 16–18°C, and the lack of significant warm advection or clear-sky radiative heating keeps probabilities tightly clustered around 18–22°C. Minor differences in forecast cloud thickness, boundary-layer mixing, or exact wind direction can shift peak readings by 1–2°C across ensemble members, explaining the even distribution of trader-implied odds across that narrow band while keeping extremes below 10% probability. Updated official guidance from Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional will refine resolution criteria ahead of the close.