Recent May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation holding at 4.2% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while core CPI eased to 2.9%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a June reading near 4.0%, yet Polymarket traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 3.7–3.9% outcomes, reflecting expectations that energy effects will moderate and shelter or services inflation will continue cooling. This pricing aligns with consumer expectations easing to 3.5% in May surveys and contrasts with earlier upward revisions in professional forecasts. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution if incoming labor or price data alter the path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtJune Inflation US - Annual
June Inflation US - Annual
≤3.6% 100.0%
3.7% <1%
3.8% <1%
3.9% <1%
$870,572 KL.
$870,572 KL.
Jul 15, 2026
≤3.6%
Yes
3.7%
No
3.8%
No
3.9%
No
4.0%
No
4.1%
No
4.2%
No
4.3%
No
4.4%
No
4.5%
No
4.6%
No
≥4.7%
No
≤3.6% 100.0%
3.7% <1%
3.8% <1%
3.9% <1%
$870,572 KL.
$870,572 KL.
Jul 15, 2026
≤3.6%
$100,740 KL.
Yes
3.7%
$95,028 KL.
No
3.8%
$140,026 KL.
No
3.9%
$117,834 KL.
No
4.0%
$144,887 KL.
No
4.1%
$92,490 KL.
No
4.2%
$60,832 KL.
No
4.3%
$39,611 KL.
No
4.4%
$20,394 KL.
No
4.5%
$24,652 KL.
No
4.6%
$17,404 KL.
No
≥4.7%
$16,675 KL.
No
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation holding at 4.2% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while core CPI eased to 2.9%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a June reading near 4.0%, yet Polymarket traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 3.7–3.9% outcomes, reflecting expectations that energy effects will moderate and shelter or services inflation will continue cooling. This pricing aligns with consumer expectations easing to 3.5% in May surveys and contrasts with earlier upward revisions in professional forecasts. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution if incoming labor or price data alter the path.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Thị trường mở: Jun 10, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Khối lượng
$870,572Ngày kết thúc
Jul 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 10, 2026, 11:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation holding at 4.2% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while core CPI eased to 2.9%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a June reading near 4.0%, yet Polymarket traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 3.7–3.9% outcomes, reflecting expectations that energy effects will moderate and shelter or services inflation will continue cooling. This pricing aligns with consumer expectations easing to 3.5% in May surveys and contrasts with earlier upward revisions in professional forecasts. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution if incoming labor or price data alter the path.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Khối lượng
$870,572Ngày kết thúc
Jul 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 10, 2026, 11:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
Recent May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation holding at 4.2% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while core CPI eased to 2.9%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a June reading near 4.0%, yet Polymarket traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 3.7–3.9% outcomes, reflecting expectations that energy effects will moderate and shelter or services inflation will continue cooling. This pricing aligns with consumer expectations easing to 3.5% in May surveys and contrasts with earlier upward revisions in professional forecasts. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution if incoming labor or price data alter the path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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