Persistent high pressure over the southern Plains and Gulf Coast has sustained a heat wave, with Houston recording overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s in recent days amid mostly clear skies and light southerly winds. Official NWS guidance for the August 22–23 night calls for a minimum near 81 °F under similar conditions, consistent with the season’s 76 °F climatological average but elevated by the current pattern. Model consensus shows little change in steering flow or moisture that would allow significant radiational cooling, keeping probabilities for sub-72 °F readings dependent on any unexpected increase in cloud cover or wind shift. The closely matched market-implied odds around the 78–82 °F bins reflect this narrow forecast envelope, while the elevated tails capture residual uncertainty in model runs and potential micro-scale urban effects.