**Persistent high pressure and strong southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico are keeping overnight temperatures elevated across the Houston area on September 12, 2026.** Official forecasts from multiple sources, including local National Weather Service guidance and extended model runs, consistently project a daily minimum in the upper 70s to low 80s°F, with the most likely range centering on 80–81°F. This aligns with the market-implied odds showing overwhelming consensus (85.5%) on that bucket. Key drivers include high dew points near 75–77°F, which limit radiational cooling under partly cloudy to clear skies after afternoon convection ends. Heat indices reached 107–110°F during the day amid highs in the mid-90s, and the same warm, moist air mass prevents the low from dropping toward the historical September 12 average of 73.5°F. No significant frontal passages or shifts in steering patterns have occurred in the past 24–48 hours to alter this setup. Traders are pricing in the latest model consensus and real-time observations, with lower-probability outcomes (e.g., 76–77°F at 11.5%) reflecting only modest uncertainty in exact overnight clearing or localized variations. Upcoming hourly updates from monitoring stations will refine the final recorded minimum before market resolution.