Maryland’s 5th Congressional District remains a solidly Democratic seat following the June 2026 primary, where state Delegate Adrian Boafo secured the nomination with roughly one-third of the vote in a crowded field. Boafo benefited from endorsements by retiring longtime Representative Steny Hoyer and Governor Wes Moore, along with substantial outside spending, positioning him as the clear frontrunner against Republican nominee Chris Chaffee. The district’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around a 95% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. With the November general election two months away, few catalysts appear likely to alter the outcome absent a major unforeseen development such as a candidate scandal or an unusually strong national partisan shift.