**Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., fueled by record heat and prolonged dryness, is the main driver behind market-implied odds favoring 10 or more states in D4 (Exceptional Drought) for the week of September 15, 2026.** The latest U.S. Drought Monitor (data valid September 8) shows D4 emerging in isolated pockets such as Benton County, Arkansas—its first occurrence there since 2012—while broader degradations from flash drought expanded from Texas through the middle Mississippi Valley. National D4 coverage reached roughly 1.5–1.8% of the contiguous U.S. amid 59% overall drought extent, with additional pressure from above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in key areas. Trader consensus reflects the speed of these shifts under current atmospheric conditions, though the weekly USDM release around September 17 will provide the definitive state count based on official percentiles and multi-indicator synthesis. Historical analogs indicate such rapid D4 expansion is uncommon outside major drought years, underscoring the role of short-term meteorological forcing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 15, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 15, 2026?
10 or more states 81%
5-6 states 35%
3-4 states 21%
1-2 states 21%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 17, 2026
0 states
1%
1-2 states
21%
3-4 states
21%
5-6 states
35%
7-9 states
20%
10 or more states
81%
10 or more states 81%
5-6 states 35%
3-4 states 21%
1-2 states 21%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 17, 2026
0 states
$21 KL.
1%
1-2 states
$0 KL.
21%
3-4 states
$0 KL.
21%
5-6 states
$0 KL.
35%
7-9 states
$0 KL.
20%
10 or more states
$0 KL.
81%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., fueled by record heat and prolonged dryness, is the main driver behind market-implied odds favoring 10 or more states in D4 (Exceptional Drought) for the week of September 15, 2026.**
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor (data valid September 8) shows D4 emerging in isolated pockets such as Benton County, Arkansas—its first occurrence there since 2012—while broader degradations from flash drought expanded from Texas through the middle Mississippi Valley. National D4 coverage reached roughly 1.5–1.8% of the contiguous U.S. amid 59% overall drought extent, with additional pressure from above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in key areas.
Trader consensus reflects the speed of these shifts under current atmospheric conditions, though the weekly USDM release around September 17 will provide the definitive state count based on official percentiles and multi-indicator synthesis. Historical analogs indicate such rapid D4 expansion is uncommon outside major drought years, underscoring the role of short-term meteorological forcing.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Thị trường mở: Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Khối lượng
$21Ngày kết thúc
Sep 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., fueled by record heat and prolonged dryness, is the main driver behind market-implied odds favoring 10 or more states in D4 (Exceptional Drought) for the week of September 15, 2026.**
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor (data valid September 8) shows D4 emerging in isolated pockets such as Benton County, Arkansas—its first occurrence there since 2012—while broader degradations from flash drought expanded from Texas through the middle Mississippi Valley. National D4 coverage reached roughly 1.5–1.8% of the contiguous U.S. amid 59% overall drought extent, with additional pressure from above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in key areas.
Trader consensus reflects the speed of these shifts under current atmospheric conditions, though the weekly USDM release around September 17 will provide the definitive state count based on official percentiles and multi-indicator synthesis. Historical analogs indicate such rapid D4 expansion is uncommon outside major drought years, underscoring the role of short-term meteorological forcing.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Khối lượng
$21Ngày kết thúc
Sep 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., fueled by record heat and prolonged dryness, is the main driver behind market-implied odds favoring 10 or more states in D4 (Exceptional Drought) for the week of September 15, 2026.** The latest U.S. Drought Monitor (data valid September 8) shows D4 emerging in isolated pockets such as Benton County, Arkansas—its first occurrence there since 2012—while broader degradations from flash drought expanded from Texas through the middle Mississippi Valley. National D4 coverage reached roughly 1.5–1.8% of the contiguous U.S. amid 59% overall drought extent, with additional pressure from above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in key areas. Trader consensus reflects the speed of these shifts under current atmospheric conditions, though the weekly USDM release around September 17 will provide the definitive state count based on official percentiles and multi-indicator synthesis. Historical analogs indicate such rapid D4 expansion is uncommon outside major drought years, underscoring the role of short-term meteorological forcing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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