Recent forecasts from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a shift to westerly flow over central Turkey, advecting cooler maritime air and limiting daytime heating after recent 32–33°C highs. This supports a Monday maximum near 26°C for Ankara, aligning with the market’s leading 45.5% implied probability for that outcome and the combined 52% chance for 25–27°C. Ensemble spreads and local variations in cloud cover or wind speed create the tight clustering around these values, while probabilities drop sharply above 28°C. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected before resolution will refine the final peak reading.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月14日安卡拉的最高溫度？
9月14日安卡拉的最高溫度？
26°C 45%
27°C 27%
25°C 25%
28°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
22°C或以下
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
25%
26°C
45%
27°C
27%
28°C
5%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C或更高
<1%
26°C 45%
27°C 27%
25°C 25%
28°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
22°C或以下
$215 交易量
1%
23°C
$207 交易量
1%
24°C
$238 交易量
1%
25°C
$947 交易量
25%
26°C
$449 交易量
45%
27°C
$622 交易量
27%
28°C
$266 交易量
5%
29°C
$142 交易量
<1%
30°C
$142 交易量
<1%
31°C
$142 交易量
<1%
32°C或更高
$142 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a shift to westerly flow over central Turkey, advecting cooler maritime air and limiting daytime heating after recent 32–33°C highs. This supports a Monday maximum near 26°C for Ankara, aligning with the market’s leading 45.5% implied probability for that outcome and the combined 52% chance for 25–27°C. Ensemble spreads and local variations in cloud cover or wind speed create the tight clustering around these values, while probabilities drop sharply above 28°C. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected before resolution will refine the final peak reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$3,514結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a shift to westerly flow over central Turkey, advecting cooler maritime air and limiting daytime heating after recent 32–33°C highs. This supports a Monday maximum near 26°C for Ankara, aligning with the market’s leading 45.5% implied probability for that outcome and the combined 52% chance for 25–27°C. Ensemble spreads and local variations in cloud cover or wind speed create the tight clustering around these values, while probabilities drop sharply above 28°C. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected before resolution will refine the final peak reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,514結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent forecasts from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a shift to westerly flow over central Turkey, advecting cooler maritime air and limiting daytime heating after recent 32–33°C highs. This supports a Monday maximum near 26°C for Ankara, aligning with the market’s leading 45.5% implied probability for that outcome and the combined 52% chance for 25–27°C. Ensemble spreads and local variations in cloud cover or wind speed create the tight clustering around these values, while probabilities drop sharply above 28°C. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected before resolution will refine the final peak reading.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions