**Latest meteorological model consensus from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF projects a maximum of 33°C in Madrid on September 12 under clear skies, light easterly winds, and low humidity, driving the near-certain market-implied probability.** This aligns with current observations showing afternoon peaks near that threshold amid a broader warm spell exceeding the 1991–2020 average high of 27.3°C for the date. Traders appear to weigh the strong model agreement and minimal forecast spread as decisive for resolution criteria based on official station readings. A sudden increase in cloud cover, stronger winds, or localized measurement discrepancies at the primary Madrid station could still shift the recorded high by 1–2°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月12日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月12日馬德裏氣溫最高？
33°C 100.0%
27°C或以下 <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$46,460 交易量
$46,460 交易量
2026-09-12
27°C或以下
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C
否
32°C
否
33°C
是
34°C
否
35°C
否
36°C
否
37°C或以上
否
33°C 100.0%
27°C或以下 <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$46,460 交易量
$46,460 交易量
2026-09-12
27°C或以下
$692 交易量
否
28°C
$410 交易量
否
29°C
$417 交易量
否
30°C
$1,786 交易量
否
31°C
$10,836 交易量
否
32°C
$16,331 交易量
否
33°C
$11,910 交易量
是
34°C
$3,224 交易量
否
35°C
$264 交易量
否
36°C
$445 交易量
否
37°C或以上
$145 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest meteorological model consensus from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF projects a maximum of 33°C in Madrid on September 12 under clear skies, light easterly winds, and low humidity, driving the near-certain market-implied probability.** This aligns with current observations showing afternoon peaks near that threshold amid a broader warm spell exceeding the 1991–2020 average high of 27.3°C for the date. Traders appear to weigh the strong model agreement and minimal forecast spread as decisive for resolution criteria based on official station readings. A sudden increase in cloud cover, stronger winds, or localized measurement discrepancies at the primary Madrid station could still shift the recorded high by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$46,460結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest meteorological model consensus from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF projects a maximum of 33°C in Madrid on September 12 under clear skies, light easterly winds, and low humidity, driving the near-certain market-implied probability.** This aligns with current observations showing afternoon peaks near that threshold amid a broader warm spell exceeding the 1991–2020 average high of 27.3°C for the date. Traders appear to weigh the strong model agreement and minimal forecast spread as decisive for resolution criteria based on official station readings. A sudden increase in cloud cover, stronger winds, or localized measurement discrepancies at the primary Madrid station could still shift the recorded high by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$46,460結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Latest meteorological model consensus from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF projects a maximum of 33°C in Madrid on September 12 under clear skies, light easterly winds, and low humidity, driving the near-certain market-implied probability.** This aligns with current observations showing afternoon peaks near that threshold amid a broader warm spell exceeding the 1991–2020 average high of 27.3°C for the date. Traders appear to weigh the strong model agreement and minimal forecast spread as decisive for resolution criteria based on official station readings. A sudden increase in cloud cover, stronger winds, or localized measurement discrepancies at the primary Madrid station could still shift the recorded high by 1–2°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions