Recent meteorological forecasts for Madrid on September 14 indicate a maximum temperature near 34°C, supported by model consensus from sources like the Met Office and European ensembles showing clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover under stable high pressure. This aligns with the market-implied 58% probability for 34°C and 31.5% for 35°C, as afternoon heating in Madrid's continental climate typically peaks in the early evening before radiative cooling. Historical data place the September 14 record at 34.4°C, with recent runs showing no significant deviations or moisture influx that would alter outcomes. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty range between 33–35°C against low precipitation odds and consistent observational trends from the prior 48 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月14日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月14日馬德裏氣溫最高？
34°C 58%
35°C 32%
33°C 6%
36°C 1.9%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
29°C或以下
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
6%
34°C
58%
35°C
32%
36°C
2%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C或更高
<1%
34°C 58%
35°C 32%
33°C 6%
36°C 1.9%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
29°C或以下
$238 交易量
<1%
30°C
$814 交易量
1%
31°C
$221 交易量
<1%
32°C
$289 交易量
1%
33°C
$2,184 交易量
6%
34°C
$1,963 交易量
58%
35°C
$2,169 交易量
32%
36°C
$330 交易量
2%
37°C
$256 交易量
<1%
38°C
$289 交易量
<1%
39°C或更高
$236 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts for Madrid on September 14 indicate a maximum temperature near 34°C, supported by model consensus from sources like the Met Office and European ensembles showing clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover under stable high pressure. This aligns with the market-implied 58% probability for 34°C and 31.5% for 35°C, as afternoon heating in Madrid's continental climate typically peaks in the early evening before radiative cooling. Historical data place the September 14 record at 34.4°C, with recent runs showing no significant deviations or moisture influx that would alter outcomes. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty range between 33–35°C against low precipitation odds and consistent observational trends from the prior 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$8,990結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts for Madrid on September 14 indicate a maximum temperature near 34°C, supported by model consensus from sources like the Met Office and European ensembles showing clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover under stable high pressure. This aligns with the market-implied 58% probability for 34°C and 31.5% for 35°C, as afternoon heating in Madrid's continental climate typically peaks in the early evening before radiative cooling. Historical data place the September 14 record at 34.4°C, with recent runs showing no significant deviations or moisture influx that would alter outcomes. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty range between 33–35°C against low precipitation odds and consistent observational trends from the prior 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$8,990結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent meteorological forecasts for Madrid on September 14 indicate a maximum temperature near 34°C, supported by model consensus from sources like the Met Office and European ensembles showing clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover under stable high pressure. This aligns with the market-implied 58% probability for 34°C and 31.5% for 35°C, as afternoon heating in Madrid's continental climate typically peaks in the early evening before radiative cooling. Historical data place the September 14 record at 34.4°C, with recent runs showing no significant deviations or moisture influx that would alter outcomes. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty range between 33–35°C against low precipitation odds and consistent observational trends from the prior 48 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions