Recent numerical weather prediction runs from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, show a stable northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air into southern Germany, with extensive cloud cover expected to limit daytime insolation. This setup supports a maximum temperature near 17°C on September 21 in Munich, aligning with the market's strong 65.5% implied probability for that outcome. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 16–18°C, consistent with early-autumn climatology where average highs reach about 18–19°C. Light winds and minimal moisture advection reduce the chance of significant warming or cooling deviations, though small timing shifts in cloud breaks could nudge the peak by 1°C. Updated model runs overnight will provide the final guidance before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月21日慕尼黑的最高溫度？
9月21日慕尼黑的最高溫度？
17°C 64%
18°C 24%
16°C 13%
19°C 3%
最新
$24,571 交易量
最新
$24,571 交易量
2026-09-21
14°C或以下
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
13%
17°C
64%
18°C
24%
19°C
3%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C或更高
<1%
17°C 64%
18°C 24%
16°C 13%
19°C 3%
最新
$24,571 交易量
最新
$24,571 交易量
2026-09-21
14°C或以下
$111 交易量
<1%
15°C
$1,109 交易量
1%
16°C
$7,535 交易量
13%
17°C
$4,043 交易量
64%
18°C
$4,611 交易量
24%
19°C
$1,635 交易量
3%
20°C
$583 交易量
1%
21°C
$211 交易量
<1%
22°C
$1,351 交易量
<1%
23°C
$2,341 交易量
<1%
24°C或更高
$1,041 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, show a stable northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air into southern Germany, with extensive cloud cover expected to limit daytime insolation. This setup supports a maximum temperature near 17°C on September 21 in Munich, aligning with the market's strong 65.5% implied probability for that outcome. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 16–18°C, consistent with early-autumn climatology where average highs reach about 18–19°C. Light winds and minimal moisture advection reduce the chance of significant warming or cooling deviations, though small timing shifts in cloud breaks could nudge the peak by 1°C. Updated model runs overnight will provide the final guidance before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$24,571結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, show a stable northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air into southern Germany, with extensive cloud cover expected to limit daytime insolation. This setup supports a maximum temperature near 17°C on September 21 in Munich, aligning with the market's strong 65.5% implied probability for that outcome. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 16–18°C, consistent with early-autumn climatology where average highs reach about 18–19°C. Light winds and minimal moisture advection reduce the chance of significant warming or cooling deviations, though small timing shifts in cloud breaks could nudge the peak by 1°C. Updated model runs overnight will provide the final guidance before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$24,571結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent numerical weather prediction runs from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, show a stable northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air into southern Germany, with extensive cloud cover expected to limit daytime insolation. This setup supports a maximum temperature near 17°C on September 21 in Munich, aligning with the market's strong 65.5% implied probability for that outcome. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 16–18°C, consistent with early-autumn climatology where average highs reach about 18–19°C. Light winds and minimal moisture advection reduce the chance of significant warming or cooling deviations, though small timing shifts in cloud breaks could nudge the peak by 1°C. Updated model runs overnight will provide the final guidance before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions