Trader consensus favors 11°C as Paris's highest temperature on March 27, with 24.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 10°C and 12°C, reflecting tight convergence in short-range ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models. Latest 00Z runs project a daytime peak near 11°C under mild westerly Atlantic flow bringing 8-12°C air masses, tempered by partial cloud cover and light northerly shear. Differentiating factors include urban heat island effects potentially adding 0.5-1°C in central Paris versus cooler suburbs, plus uncertainty in afternoon insolation if low-level stratus clears—favoring 12°C—or persists for 10°C. Historical March 27 highs average 12.5°C, but current 500hPa geopotential anomalies indicate a 1°C cool bias; watch 12Z updates for resolution shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Paris on March 27?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 27?
11°C 24%
10°C 20%
12°C 18%
14°C 11%
5°C or below
2%
6°C
4%
7°C
8%
8°C
11%
9°C
15%
10°C
20%
11°C
25%
12°C
18%
13°C
11%
14°C
17%
15°C or higher
2%
11°C 24%
10°C 20%
12°C 18%
14°C 11%
5°C or below
2%
6°C
4%
7°C
8%
8°C
11%
9°C
15%
10°C
20%
11°C
25%
12°C
18%
13°C
11%
14°C
17%
15°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 23, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 11°C as Paris's highest temperature on March 27, with 24.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 10°C and 12°C, reflecting tight convergence in short-range ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models. Latest 00Z runs project a daytime peak near 11°C under mild westerly Atlantic flow bringing 8-12°C air masses, tempered by partial cloud cover and light northerly shear. Differentiating factors include urban heat island effects potentially adding 0.5-1°C in central Paris versus cooler suburbs, plus uncertainty in afternoon insolation if low-level stratus clears—favoring 12°C—or persists for 10°C. Historical March 27 highs average 12.5°C, but current 500hPa geopotential anomalies indicate a 1°C cool bias; watch 12Z updates for resolution shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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