Traders assign roughly equal 20% implied probabilities across 22–29°C for Paris's highest temperature on September 26 because short-range ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and Météo-France currently show a broad spread in maximum readings. Late-September synoptic patterns over northern France—driven by variable Atlantic ridging versus approaching troughs—create typical day-to-day uncertainty of several degrees, with no strong consensus yet on whether a warmer southerly flow or cooler northerly advection will dominate. Historical September maxima in Paris average near 20–22°C but exhibit high interannual variability. Fresh model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月26日巴黎最高溫度？
9月26日巴黎最高溫度？
24°C 35%
25°C 32%
26°C 22%
23°C 20%
最新
最新
2026-09-26
20°C或以下
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
19%
23°C
20%
24°C
35%
25°C
32%
26°C
22%
27°C
8%
28°C
14%
29°C
4%
30°C或以上
2%
24°C 35%
25°C 32%
26°C 22%
23°C 20%
最新
最新
2026-09-26
20°C或以下
$0 交易量
4%
21°C
$0 交易量
4%
22°C
$0 交易量
19%
23°C
$0 交易量
20%
24°C
$6 交易量
35%
25°C
$39 交易量
32%
26°C
$8 交易量
22%
27°C
$0 交易量
8%
28°C
$0 交易量
14%
29°C
$0 交易量
4%
30°C或以上
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign roughly equal 20% implied probabilities across 22–29°C for Paris's highest temperature on September 26 because short-range ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and Météo-France currently show a broad spread in maximum readings. Late-September synoptic patterns over northern France—driven by variable Atlantic ridging versus approaching troughs—create typical day-to-day uncertainty of several degrees, with no strong consensus yet on whether a warmer southerly flow or cooler northerly advection will dominate. Historical September maxima in Paris average near 20–22°C but exhibit high interannual variability. Fresh model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 24, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
交易量
$53結束日期
2026-09-26市場開放時間
Sep 24, 2026, 12:55 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign roughly equal 20% implied probabilities across 22–29°C for Paris's highest temperature on September 26 because short-range ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and Météo-France currently show a broad spread in maximum readings. Late-September synoptic patterns over northern France—driven by variable Atlantic ridging versus approaching troughs—create typical day-to-day uncertainty of several degrees, with no strong consensus yet on whether a warmer southerly flow or cooler northerly advection will dominate. Historical September maxima in Paris average near 20–22°C but exhibit high interannual variability. Fresh model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$53結束日期
2026-09-26市場開放時間
Sep 24, 2026, 12:55 AM ETTraders assign roughly equal 20% implied probabilities across 22–29°C for Paris's highest temperature on September 26 because short-range ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and Météo-France currently show a broad spread in maximum readings. Late-September synoptic patterns over northern France—driven by variable Atlantic ridging versus approaching troughs—create typical day-to-day uncertainty of several degrees, with no strong consensus yet on whether a warmer southerly flow or cooler northerly advection will dominate. Historical September maxima in Paris average near 20–22°C but exhibit high interannual variability. Fresh model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions