Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 28°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature on May 1, driven by official hourly observations from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 28°C mid-afternoon under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly winds fostering adiabatic warming. China Meteorological Administration models, including short-range GFS and ECMWF ensembles, converged on this maximum, reflecting clear skies and low cloud cover that maximized insolation while current evening cooling aligns with the diurnal cycle. This positions well above May climatological norms of around 20°C, amid an anomalous warm spell. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon heat burst from unexpected subsidence before sunset, though post-peak readings and sinking temperatures render this improbable; final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 1?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 1?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$21,436 交易量
$21,436 交易量
2026-05-01
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$21,436 交易量
$21,436 交易量
2026-05-01
23°C or below
$1,903 交易量
No
24°C
$1,885 交易量
No
25°C
$3,337 交易量
No
26°C
$1,758 交易量
No
27°C
$3,941 交易量
No
28°C
$2,333 交易量
Yes
29°C
$1,359 交易量
No
30°C
$1,915 交易量
No
31°C
$1,631 交易量
No
32°C
$506 交易量
No
33°C or higher
$867 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 28°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature on May 1, driven by official hourly observations from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 28°C mid-afternoon under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly winds fostering adiabatic warming. China Meteorological Administration models, including short-range GFS and ECMWF ensembles, converged on this maximum, reflecting clear skies and low cloud cover that maximized insolation while current evening cooling aligns with the diurnal cycle. This positions well above May climatological norms of around 20°C, amid an anomalous warm spell. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon heat burst from unexpected subsidence before sunset, though post-peak readings and sinking temperatures render this improbable; final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 29, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
交易量
$21,436結束日期
2026-05-01市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 28°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature on May 1, driven by official hourly observations from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 28°C mid-afternoon under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly winds fostering adiabatic warming. China Meteorological Administration models, including short-range GFS and ECMWF ensembles, converged on this maximum, reflecting clear skies and low cloud cover that maximized insolation while current evening cooling aligns with the diurnal cycle. This positions well above May climatological norms of around 20°C, amid an anomalous warm spell. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon heat burst from unexpected subsidence before sunset, though post-peak readings and sinking temperatures render this improbable; final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$21,436結束日期
2026-05-01市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 28°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature on May 1, driven by official hourly observations from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 28°C mid-afternoon under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly winds fostering adiabatic warming. China Meteorological Administration models, including short-range GFS and ECMWF ensembles, converged on this maximum, reflecting clear skies and low cloud cover that maximized insolation while current evening cooling aligns with the diurnal cycle. This positions well above May climatological norms of around 20°C, amid an anomalous warm spell. Realistic challenges include a late-afternoon heat burst from unexpected subsidence before sunset, though post-peak readings and sinking temperatures render this improbable; final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions