Latest weather model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS point to a tight range of 16-17°C as the most probable highs for Shanghai on March 27, driving trader favoritism toward those outcomes amid a 59% combined implied probability. This reflects a mild high-pressure ridge over eastern China, fostering above-normal temperatures following recent warm advection from the south, though a potential weak cold front could shave 1°C off peaks. Historical March 27 averages hover at 14-15°C per China Meteorological Administration data, but urban heat island effects and neutral ENSO conditions amplify upside risk, differentiating 16°C (32%) from 17°C (27%) via ensemble spreads showing slight cooling bias in final hours. Traders eye afternoon CMA updates for resolution clarity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於3月27日上海最高溫度?
3月27日上海最高溫度?
16°C 32%
17°C 27%
18°C 15%
15°C 12%
11°C或以下
2%
12°C
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
10%
15°C
12%
16°C
32%
17°C
27%
18°C
15%
19°C
5%
20°C
2%
21°C或以上
2%
16°C 32%
17°C 27%
18°C 15%
15°C 12%
11°C或以下
2%
12°C
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
10%
15°C
12%
16°C
32%
17°C
27%
18°C
15%
19°C
5%
20°C
2%
21°C或以上
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 23, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest weather model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS point to a tight range of 16-17°C as the most probable highs for Shanghai on March 27, driving trader favoritism toward those outcomes amid a 59% combined implied probability. This reflects a mild high-pressure ridge over eastern China, fostering above-normal temperatures following recent warm advection from the south, though a potential weak cold front could shave 1°C off peaks. Historical March 27 averages hover at 14-15°C per China Meteorological Administration data, but urban heat island effects and neutral ENSO conditions amplify upside risk, differentiating 16°C (32%) from 17°C (27%) via ensemble spreads showing slight cooling bias in final hours. Traders eye afternoon CMA updates for resolution clarity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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