Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 7 at 30°C, driven by intraday observational data from the resolving station at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming a peak of 30°C this afternoon amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds under 12 km/h, and the urban heat island effect boosting readings 1–2°C above rural baselines. This aligns with international forecasts from AccuWeather (30.5°C) and the UK Met Office (30°C), overriding the China Meteorological Administration's more conservative 29°C call under expected overcast conditions. With sunset approaching and diurnal cooling underway, realistic challenges like unexpected afternoon cloud breaks enabling further solar insolation are improbable, as historical May patterns and current trajectories cap peaks near this level; final daily maximum data expected by evening local time.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 7?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 7?
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$204,750 交易量
$204,750 交易量
2026-05-07
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$204,750 交易量
$204,750 交易量
2026-05-07
23°C or below
$12,803 交易量
No
24°C
$8,123 交易量
No
25°C
$12,110 交易量
No
26°C
$20,219 交易量
No
27°C
$18,466 交易量
No
28°C
$16,279 交易量
No
29°C
$36,603 交易量
No
30°C
$32,603 交易量
Yes
31°C
$24,688 交易量
No
32°C
$14,733 交易量
No
33°C or higher
$8,122 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 7 at 30°C, driven by intraday observational data from the resolving station at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming a peak of 30°C this afternoon amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds under 12 km/h, and the urban heat island effect boosting readings 1–2°C above rural baselines. This aligns with international forecasts from AccuWeather (30.5°C) and the UK Met Office (30°C), overriding the China Meteorological Administration's more conservative 29°C call under expected overcast conditions. With sunset approaching and diurnal cooling underway, realistic challenges like unexpected afternoon cloud breaks enabling further solar insolation are improbable, as historical May patterns and current trajectories cap peaks near this level; final daily maximum data expected by evening local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 5, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
交易量
$204,750結束日期
2026-05-07市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 12:06 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 7 at 30°C, driven by intraday observational data from the resolving station at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming a peak of 30°C this afternoon amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds under 12 km/h, and the urban heat island effect boosting readings 1–2°C above rural baselines. This aligns with international forecasts from AccuWeather (30.5°C) and the UK Met Office (30°C), overriding the China Meteorological Administration's more conservative 29°C call under expected overcast conditions. With sunset approaching and diurnal cooling underway, realistic challenges like unexpected afternoon cloud breaks enabling further solar insolation are improbable, as historical May patterns and current trajectories cap peaks near this level; final daily maximum data expected by evening local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$204,750結束日期
2026-05-07市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 12:06 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 7 at 30°C, driven by intraday observational data from the resolving station at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming a peak of 30°C this afternoon amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds under 12 km/h, and the urban heat island effect boosting readings 1–2°C above rural baselines. This aligns with international forecasts from AccuWeather (30.5°C) and the UK Met Office (30°C), overriding the China Meteorological Administration's more conservative 29°C call under expected overcast conditions. With sunset approaching and diurnal cooling underway, realistic challenges like unexpected afternoon cloud breaks enabling further solar insolation are improbable, as historical May patterns and current trajectories cap peaks near this level; final daily maximum data expected by evening local time.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions