Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show stable subtropical high pressure and light winds keeping Tokyo’s overnight minimum at 26°C on August 1, with ensemble models exhibiting tight agreement around this value. Historical August climatology places typical lows near 25–27°C, and recent observational trends confirm no rapid cooling or frontal passage is expected before the daily minimum is reached. Traders assign 100% implied probability to 26°C because the resolution threshold is narrow and current data leave little room for deviation. A late-night marine layer or unforecasted advection of cooler air could still shift the reading by 1°C, though such outcomes remain statistically rare this late in the diurnal cycle.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月1日東京的最低溫度？
8月1日東京的最低溫度？
26°C 100.0%
22°C或以下 <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$16,652 交易量
$16,652 交易量
2026-08-01
22°C或以下
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
是
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C
否
32°C或以上
否
26°C 100.0%
22°C或以下 <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$16,652 交易量
$16,652 交易量
2026-08-01
22°C或以下
$348 交易量
否
23°C
$499 交易量
否
24°C
$528 交易量
否
25°C
$867 交易量
否
26°C
$1,615 交易量
是
27°C
$10,087 交易量
否
28°C
$1,181 交易量
否
29°C
$659 交易量
否
30°C
$372 交易量
否
31°C
$305 交易量
否
32°C或以上
$193 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show stable subtropical high pressure and light winds keeping Tokyo’s overnight minimum at 26°C on August 1, with ensemble models exhibiting tight agreement around this value. Historical August climatology places typical lows near 25–27°C, and recent observational trends confirm no rapid cooling or frontal passage is expected before the daily minimum is reached. Traders assign 100% implied probability to 26°C because the resolution threshold is narrow and current data leave little room for deviation. A late-night marine layer or unforecasted advection of cooler air could still shift the reading by 1°C, though such outcomes remain statistically rare this late in the diurnal cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$16,652結束日期
2026-08-01市場開放時間
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show stable subtropical high pressure and light winds keeping Tokyo’s overnight minimum at 26°C on August 1, with ensemble models exhibiting tight agreement around this value. Historical August climatology places typical lows near 25–27°C, and recent observational trends confirm no rapid cooling or frontal passage is expected before the daily minimum is reached. Traders assign 100% implied probability to 26°C because the resolution threshold is narrow and current data leave little room for deviation. A late-night marine layer or unforecasted advection of cooler air could still shift the reading by 1°C, though such outcomes remain statistically rare this late in the diurnal cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$16,652結束日期
2026-08-01市場開放時間
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show stable subtropical high pressure and light winds keeping Tokyo’s overnight minimum at 26°C on August 1, with ensemble models exhibiting tight agreement around this value. Historical August climatology places typical lows near 25–27°C, and recent observational trends confirm no rapid cooling or frontal passage is expected before the daily minimum is reached. Traders assign 100% implied probability to 26°C because the resolution threshold is narrow and current data leave little room for deviation. A late-night marine layer or unforecasted advection of cooler air could still shift the reading by 1°C, though such outcomes remain statistically rare this late in the diurnal cycle.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions