Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus have converged on overnight lows of 24–25°C for Tokyo on August 19 under a persistent subtropical high with partly cloudy skies, producing the market's 100% implied probability for a 25°C minimum. This positioning aligns with climatological norms for mid-August, when urban heat island effects and high humidity limit radiative cooling, keeping dawn temperatures near seasonal averages of 23–25°C. Stable steering patterns and lack of frontal systems or typhoon influences reinforce the outlook. A sudden increase in cloud cover or unexpected northerly flow could enhance cooling and shift the minimum below 25°C, though current observations and short-range guidance show no such development before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月19日東京最低氣溫？
8月19日東京最低氣溫？
25°C 100.0%
20°C或以下 <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$27,670 交易量
$27,670 交易量
2026-08-19
20°C或以下
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
是
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C或以上
否
25°C 100.0%
20°C或以下 <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$27,670 交易量
$27,670 交易量
2026-08-19
20°C或以下
$2,388 交易量
否
21°C
$1,612 交易量
否
22°C
$1,212 交易量
否
23°C
$1,648 交易量
否
24°C
$1,902 交易量
否
25°C
$4,291 交易量
是
26°C
$1,612 交易量
否
27°C
$751 交易量
否
28°C
$1,340 交易量
否
29°C
$2,697 交易量
否
30°C或以上
$8,218 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus have converged on overnight lows of 24–25°C for Tokyo on August 19 under a persistent subtropical high with partly cloudy skies, producing the market's 100% implied probability for a 25°C minimum. This positioning aligns with climatological norms for mid-August, when urban heat island effects and high humidity limit radiative cooling, keeping dawn temperatures near seasonal averages of 23–25°C. Stable steering patterns and lack of frontal systems or typhoon influences reinforce the outlook. A sudden increase in cloud cover or unexpected northerly flow could enhance cooling and shift the minimum below 25°C, though current observations and short-range guidance show no such development before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
交易量
$27,670結束日期
2026-08-19市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 12:28 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus have converged on overnight lows of 24–25°C for Tokyo on August 19 under a persistent subtropical high with partly cloudy skies, producing the market's 100% implied probability for a 25°C minimum. This positioning aligns with climatological norms for mid-August, when urban heat island effects and high humidity limit radiative cooling, keeping dawn temperatures near seasonal averages of 23–25°C. Stable steering patterns and lack of frontal systems or typhoon influences reinforce the outlook. A sudden increase in cloud cover or unexpected northerly flow could enhance cooling and shift the minimum below 25°C, though current observations and short-range guidance show no such development before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$27,670結束日期
2026-08-19市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 12:28 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus have converged on overnight lows of 24–25°C for Tokyo on August 19 under a persistent subtropical high with partly cloudy skies, producing the market's 100% implied probability for a 25°C minimum. This positioning aligns with climatological norms for mid-August, when urban heat island effects and high humidity limit radiative cooling, keeping dawn temperatures near seasonal averages of 23–25°C. Stable steering patterns and lack of frontal systems or typhoon influences reinforce the outlook. A sudden increase in cloud cover or unexpected northerly flow could enhance cooling and shift the minimum below 25°C, though current observations and short-range guidance show no such development before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions