Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 28°C in Wuhan on May 4, driven by real-time observational data from the official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport meteorological station, where maximum readings peaked at 28°C during midday hours under partly cloudy skies with light winds. This aligns with short-range forecast model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, projecting highs around 27–29°C amid typical early May conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where average May maxima hover near 26.4°C based on historical climatology. Scenarios challenging this would require an upward data revision from late-afternoon or evening observations exceeding 28°C or a station measurement anomaly, both highly improbable given stabilizing evening temperatures and consistent hourly METAR reports. Final resolution awaits the airport's daily maximum confirmation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 4?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 4?
28°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$50,621 交易量
$50,621 交易量
2026-05-04
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$50,621 交易量
$50,621 交易量
2026-05-04
22°C or below
$482 交易量
No
23°C
$758 交易量
No
24°C
$3,236 交易量
No
25°C
$5,223 交易量
No
26°C
$3,948 交易量
No
27°C
$5,620 交易量
No
28°C
$5,854 交易量
Yes
29°C
$5,986 交易量
No
30°C
$7,381 交易量
No
31°C
$6,028 交易量
No
32°C or higher
$6,106 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 28°C in Wuhan on May 4, driven by real-time observational data from the official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport meteorological station, where maximum readings peaked at 28°C during midday hours under partly cloudy skies with light winds. This aligns with short-range forecast model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, projecting highs around 27–29°C amid typical early May conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where average May maxima hover near 26.4°C based on historical climatology. Scenarios challenging this would require an upward data revision from late-afternoon or evening observations exceeding 28°C or a station measurement anomaly, both highly improbable given stabilizing evening temperatures and consistent hourly METAR reports. Final resolution awaits the airport's daily maximum confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
交易量
$50,621結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 28°C in Wuhan on May 4, driven by real-time observational data from the official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport meteorological station, where maximum readings peaked at 28°C during midday hours under partly cloudy skies with light winds. This aligns with short-range forecast model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, projecting highs around 27–29°C amid typical early May conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where average May maxima hover near 26.4°C based on historical climatology. Scenarios challenging this would require an upward data revision from late-afternoon or evening observations exceeding 28°C or a station measurement anomaly, both highly improbable given stabilizing evening temperatures and consistent hourly METAR reports. Final resolution awaits the airport's daily maximum confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$50,621結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 28°C in Wuhan on May 4, driven by real-time observational data from the official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport meteorological station, where maximum readings peaked at 28°C during midday hours under partly cloudy skies with light winds. This aligns with short-range forecast model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, projecting highs around 27–29°C amid typical early May conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where average May maxima hover near 26.4°C based on historical climatology. Scenarios challenging this would require an upward data revision from late-afternoon or evening observations exceeding 28°C or a station measurement anomaly, both highly improbable given stabilizing evening temperatures and consistent hourly METAR reports. Final resolution awaits the airport's daily maximum confirmation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions