Trader consensus favors two countries at 55% implied probability, reflecting Israel's confirmed airstrikes in Iran during early April—such as over 20 strikes in Tehran on April 2—before a US-brokered ceasefire paused direct escalation, alongside relentless operations in Lebanon, including massive barrages hitting 100 Hezbollah targets in 10 minutes around April 6 and ongoing ground maneuvers in the south. A third country at 38% likely nods to intensified Israeli raids in southern Syria reported April 9, per UN probes, amid buffer zone expansions. Odds for four or more remain low at 9.5%, as diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon began April 14, signaling potential de-escalation, with no verified April strikes in Yemen or Iraq despite Houthi attacks on Israel. Remaining April days could shift via proxy escalations or ceasefire breakdowns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2 55%
3 39%
四個或以上 9%
$101,404 交易量
$101,404 交易量
2026-04-30
2
55%
3
39%
四個或以上
9%
2 55%
3 39%
四個或以上 9%
$101,404 交易量
$101,404 交易量
2026-04-30
2
$24,336 交易量
55%
3
$30,032 交易量
39%
四個或以上
$39,570 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors two countries at 55% implied probability, reflecting Israel's confirmed airstrikes in Iran during early April—such as over 20 strikes in Tehran on April 2—before a US-brokered ceasefire paused direct escalation, alongside relentless operations in Lebanon, including massive barrages hitting 100 Hezbollah targets in 10 minutes around April 6 and ongoing ground maneuvers in the south. A third country at 38% likely nods to intensified Israeli raids in southern Syria reported April 9, per UN probes, amid buffer zone expansions. Odds for four or more remain low at 9.5%, as diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon began April 14, signaling potential de-escalation, with no verified April strikes in Yemen or Iraq despite Houthi attacks on Israel. Remaining April days could shift via proxy escalations or ceasefire breakdowns.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$101,404結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors two countries at 55% implied probability, reflecting Israel's confirmed airstrikes in Iran during early April—such as over 20 strikes in Tehran on April 2—before a US-brokered ceasefire paused direct escalation, alongside relentless operations in Lebanon, including massive barrages hitting 100 Hezbollah targets in 10 minutes around April 6 and ongoing ground maneuvers in the south. A third country at 38% likely nods to intensified Israeli raids in southern Syria reported April 9, per UN probes, amid buffer zone expansions. Odds for four or more remain low at 9.5%, as diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon began April 14, signaling potential de-escalation, with no verified April strikes in Yemen or Iraq despite Houthi attacks on Israel. Remaining April days could shift via proxy escalations or ceasefire breakdowns.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$101,404結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors two countries at 55% implied probability, reflecting Israel's confirmed airstrikes in Iran during early April—such as over 20 strikes in Tehran on April 2—before a US-brokered ceasefire paused direct escalation, alongside relentless operations in Lebanon, including massive barrages hitting 100 Hezbollah targets in 10 minutes around April 6 and ongoing ground maneuvers in the south. A third country at 38% likely nods to intensified Israeli raids in southern Syria reported April 9, per UN probes, amid buffer zone expansions. Odds for four or more remain low at 9.5%, as diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon began April 14, signaling potential de-escalation, with no verified April strikes in Yemen or Iraq despite Houthi attacks on Israel. Remaining April days could shift via proxy escalations or ceasefire breakdowns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions