US-brokered trilateral framework talks between Israel and Lebanon, culminating in a June 2026 agreement focused on security arrangements, Hezbollah disarmament, Lebanese army deployment south of the Litani River, and Israeli withdrawal, have advanced cease-fire implementation but explicitly excluded diplomatic normalization. Lebanese officials have stated that full relations lie outside the current agenda and would require broader Arab consensus, while Hezbollah has rejected the framework outright amid continued low-level clashes and Israeli operations. Scheduled follow-on sessions in Rome this month address border issues and pilot zones yet remain centered on sovereignty and security guarantees rather than diplomatic ties. Traders assign an 87% probability to no normalization by December 31, 2026, reflecting these structural barriers and the absence of any framework for establishing embassies or formal relations.