Ongoing hostilities and Hezbollah’s explicit rejection of the June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement have kept full diplomatic normalization off the table. The deal outlined sequenced steps toward Lebanese sovereignty, Hezbollah disarmament, and eventual peaceful relations, yet the group declared it “null and void” while Israeli strikes and cross-border incidents continued. Lebanon’s domestic political constraints, including longstanding anti-normalization statutes and resistance from key factions, further limit any rapid shift. Recent ceasefire renewals and border talks remain narrowly focused on security arrangements rather than diplomatic recognition or treaties. These verified developments through July 2026 underpin traders’ strong consensus that normalization is unlikely before 2027.